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Overnight trade has SRW up roughly 3 cents, HRW up 3; HRS Wheat up 2, Corn is up 2 cents; Soybeans down 2, Soymeal down $0.50, and Soyoil down 25 points.

U.S. Weather Forecast:

Last evening’s GFS model run was particularly aggressive about a surge of well below average temperatures to move across the Northern Plains and Corn Belt Sunday through Aug. 22.

Last evening’s GFS model run was notably wetter in Iowa and the southwestern Corn Belt in general Aug. 20 – 25. 

The player sheet had funds net sellers of 4,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; net bought 9,000 Corn; bought 8,000 Soybeans; net bought 2,000 lots of Soymeal, and; net even in Soyoil.

We estimate Managed Money net short 13,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; short 171,000 Corn; net long 39,000 Soybeans; net short 23,000 lots of Soymeal, and; long 46,000 Soyoil.

Preliminary Open Interest saw SRW Wheat futures up roughly 3,600 contracts; HRW Wheat up 3,700; Corn down 9,700; Soybeans down 1,300 contracts; Soymeal down 3,800 lots, and; Soyoil down 1,400.

Deliveries were 262 Soymeal; ZERO Soyoil, and ZERO Soybeans

There were no changes in registrations—Registrations total 95 contracts for SRW Wheat; ZERO Oats; Corn ZERO; Soybeans ZERO; Soyoil 2,608 lots; Soymeal 511; Rice 11; HRW Wheat 47, and; HRS 1,387. 

Tender Activity—Egypt seeks optional-origin wheat—Taiwan seeks 65,000t optional-origin corn—Iran seeks 250,000t optional-origin corn, 250,000t soymeal—

U.S. corn rated 71% good-excellent, soybeans 74% -USDA

Yesterday’s U.S. weekly export inspections had

—Wheat exports running up 2% ahead of a year ago (up 9% last week) with the USDA currently forecasting a 2% decrease on the year

—Corn 14% behind a year ago (16% last week) with the USDA down 14% for the season

—Soybeans are down 5% on the year (down 5% last week) with the USDA having a 6% decrease forecasted on the year

A storm packing hurricane-force winds tore across the U.S. Midwest on Monday, causing widespread property damage in cities and rural towns and leaving more than half a million homes and businesses without power; the storm compounded troubles for a U.S. farm economy already battered by extreme weather, the U.S.-China trade war and most recently, the disruption caused to labor and consumption by the COVID-19 pandemic.

U.S. Crop Watch corn and soybeans experienced another week with mostly spotty precipitation, though the cooler temperatures prevented a decline in yield expectations for all locations except Ohio; all eight producers have reported the need for rain, though the situation is most critical in Ohio, Iowa and Nebraska; temperatures are forecast to be warmer than average over the next week or so in the western areas, and average or cooler conditions are more likely in the east; rainfall outlooks continue to fluctuate, though they do not suggest widespread relief is imminent.

China imposed sanctions on 11 Americans on Monday, including Sens. Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz, the latest tit-for-tat following a spate of measures by the U.S. that have inflamed tensions between the two countries; the moves make for a difficult backdrop as trade negotiators are expected to meet next weekend to review the phase one trade deal signed early this year. What emerges from that meeting could potentially awaken markets to the growing U.S.-China risk. So far, they have been relatively nonplussed. Global stocks, including China’s CSI 300, were up on Monday; the White House has largely said that the phase one trade deal is on track, even as data show that China hasn’t kept up with its pledged purchases, in part because of the pandemic sapping demand, falling prices making the purchase commitments even harder to hit, and seasonal dynamics.

Wire story reports U.S. farmers leave fields fallow as COVID-19 wrecks crop prospects

Russian wheat export prices fell last week for the second week in a row as pressure on the market increased from the arrival of the new crop; Russian wheat with 12.5% protein loading from Black Sea ports was at $205 a ton free on board (FOB) for supply in August at the end of last week, down $2 from the week before, agriculture consultancy IKAR said; Sovecon, another Moscow consultancy, pegged wheat at $205 per ton, down $4.

Russian agriculture consultancy IKAR said on Monday it had raised its forecast for Russia’s 2020/21 grain crop by 1.5 million tons to 129 million tons due to higher yields in some regions; it was its third upgrade in two weeks as yields are rising sharply in the Central and Volga regions, signalling brighter export prospects for the country after its southern regions were hit by dry weather.

Ukraine’s grain exports have declined to 3.5 million tons so far in the 2020/21 July-June season, from 5.1 million tonnes at the same point of the previous season, the economy ministry said on Monday; the exports have included 1.88 million tonnes of wheat, 498,000 tonnes of corn and 1.12 million tonnes of barley as of Aug. 10.

Ukraine’s economy ministry has kept its forecast for 2020/21 wheat exports unchanged at 17.2 million tonnes; the country had harvested 23.1 million tonnes of wheat from 87% of the sown area as of Aug. 6.

Soft wheat exports from the European Union and Britain in the 2020/21 season that started on July 1 totaled 978,000 tons by Aug. 9, official EU data showed; that was 61% below the volume exported by the same week in the 2019/20 season, the data showed.

—EU 2020/21 barley exports had reached 440,000 tons, down 51% from 2019/20

—EU 2020/21 maize imports stood at 1.34 million tons, down 49%.

Soybean imports into the European Union and Britain in the 2020/21 season that started on July 1 totalled 1.74 million tons by Aug. 9, official EU data showed; that was 9% above the volume imported by the same week in the 2019/20 season

—EU and UK rapeseed imports in 2020/21 so far had reached 216,000 tonnes, down 47% from 2019/20.

—Soymeal imports in 2020/21 came to 1.70 million tons, down 30%

—Palm oil imports stood at 491,000 tons, down 17%.

European wheat futures hit six-week lows on Monday as expectations for a large Russian wheat harvest underscored ample global supplies; front-month September milling wheat Euronext exchange was down 1.0 euro, or 0.5%, at 177.0 euros ($208.24) a ton at 1520 GMT, its lowest since end-June. 

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