Global Ag News Headlines
TODAY—AUG OPTION EXPIRATION—CATTLE ON FEED—COMMITMENTS REPORT
Overnight trade has SRW up roughly 6 cents, HRW up 5; HRS Wheat up 4, Corn is unchanged; Soybeans unchanged, Soymeal unchanged, and Soyoil up 10 points.
For the week, SRW Wheat prices are up roughly 1 cent; HRW down 3; HRS unchanged; Corn is down 3 cents; Soybeans up 5; Soymeal up $4.00, and; Soyoil down 5 points. Crushing margins are up 3 at 89 cents; Oil share down 1% at 33%.
Chinese Ag futures (Sep) settled down 62 yuan, up 29 in Corn, up 27 in Soymeal, up 50 in Soyoil, and up 160 in Palm Oil.
Malaysian palm oil prices were up at 2,740 (basis October) at midsession, a 5 month high, on ideas of a drop in output due to heavy rains.
U.S. Weather Forecast
The 11 to 16 day forecast is back to average rainfall and average to a bit below average temps across the Midwest through August 7th.
The player sheet had funds net sellers of 4,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; net bought 3,000 Corn; bought 6,000 Soybeans; net bought 4,000 lots of soymeal, and; sold 2,000 Soyoil.
We estimate Managed Money net short 9,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; short 122,000 Corn; net long 94,000 Soybeans; net short 25,000 lots of Soymeal, and; long 22,000 Soyoil.
Preliminary Open Interest saw SRW Wheat futures down roughly 440 contracts; HRW Wheat up 3,200; Corn up 22,300; Soybeans up 5,200 contracts; Soymeal down 3,600 lots, and; Soyoil up 2,500.
There were no changes in registrations—
Registrations total 95 contracts for SRW Wheat; ZERO Oats; Corn ZERO; Soybeans ZERO; Soyoil 2,786 lots; Soymeal 511; Rice 174; HRW Wheat 47, and; HRS 1,387.
For the week ended July 16th, U.S. All Wheat sales are running 5% ahead of a year ago, shipments up 1% with the USDA forecasting a 2% decline on the year
For the week ended July 16th, U.S. Corn sales are running 12% behind a year ago, shipments 12% behind with the USDA forecasting a 14% decline.
For the week ended July 16th, U.S. Soybean sales are running 4% behind a year ago, shipments down 3% with the USDA forecasting a 6% decline on the year
China has returned in full force to the U.S. soybean market following the trade dispute that began two years ago, giving American exporters hope that the upcoming shipping season will be their most successful in three years; the Phase 1 trade deal signed at the beginning of this year implied China must book record or near-record volumes of U.S. soybeans through at least the end of 2021; despite historically light purchases in the first few months of 2020, the Chinese seem to be making up for lost time, at least for now; in addition to the Phase 1 agreement, Chinese feed demand is expected to rise from last year as it builds back up the hog herd after huge losses from African swine fever; some market analysts also expect China may build soybean reserves
The International Grains Council (IGC) on Thursday cut its forecast for global wheat production in the 2020/21 season partly reflecting lowered crop outlooks for the European Union, Russia and the United States
Saskatchewan crop report
Crops remain in relatively good condition and are advancing quickly, thanks to recent rain and warm weather. Provincially, 89 per cent of the fall cereals, 77 per cent of the spring cereals, 74 per cent of the oilseeds and 84 per cent of the pulse crops are at their normal stages of development for this time of year
Beef industry slowly recovering as ranchers see light at end of tunnel
CALGARY Alberta’s beef industry is slowly recovering from the impacts of COVID-19, including temporary shutdowns at major meat-packing plants this spring
China has accelerated grains buying from abroad in the first half of 2020 and may fully use up its annual quotas for corn and wheat imports for the first time ever, traders and analysts said; China, the world’s top agricultural market, imported 3.66 million tons of corn from January to June, 51% of its annual quota for the grain set at 7.2 million tons
Brazilian soybean output in the 2020/2021 season, which starts in September, is estimated at 130.8 million tons as farmers look to expand planted area, agribusiness consultancy Céleres said; Brazil’s soybean planted area will grow by 1.3 million hectares to an estimated 38.2 million in the 2020/2021 season
Paraguay soybean sales to Brazil rise as low water levels affect other export routes
Soybean exports from Paraguay to Brazil have increased 370% year-on-year in the first half of 2020 due to low water levels complicating other export routes, AgriCensusreported on 14 July; the latest data published from Paraguay’s central bank also showed that strong Brazilian domestic demand was a factor in the huge export surge; for the January-June period, Brazil acquired 379,100 tons of soybeans from Paraguay, a dramatic increase from 80,600 tons in the same period in 2019; Paraguay exported a total of 3.96M tons of soybeans in the first six months of 2020, up 8.5% on the same period in 2019.
Dryness in northern and central Argentina is affecting the development of recently planted wheat fields, the Buenos Aires Grains Exchange said on Thursday, having twice cut its planting estimate in recent weeks due to persistently bad weather; the exchange, widely referenced by farmers and grains traders, expects 6.5 million hectares of wheat to be sown this season, down from an original forecast of 6.8 million hectares
Ukraine’s rapeseed harvest should reach 2.52 million tons this year, down from an initial estimate of 2.8 million tons, French consultancy Agritel said after lowering both its area and average yield forecasts due to dry weather; Ukraine had harvested 3.35 million tons of the oilseed last year.
Soft wheat exports from the European Union in the 2020/21 season to July 19 totalled 460,329 tons, official EU data showed; that was 53% below the volume exported in the previous 2019/20 season
European Union soybean imports in the 2020/21 season to July 19 totalled 792,687 tonnes, official EU data showed; that was 16% below the volume exported in the previous 2019/20 season
The condition of French soft wheat improved in the week to July 20, with 57% of crops rated good or excellent against 55% the previous week, although that was still well below the year-earlier level of 75%, FranceAgriMer’s weekly report showed
Palm oil prices will fall by the fourth quarter due to higher output and inventory levels, dampening a rally that sent the tropical oil to a five-month high this week; the benchmark palm oil contract has gained 40% in the last 11 weeks, helped by concerns over tighter supply from top producers Indonesia and Malaysia, and signs of increasing demand; output peak has shifted to the fourth quarter due to heavy rains in Indonesia, said James Fry, chairman of consultancy LMC International, adding that he expected higher inventory towards the end of the year; unless you feel very bullish about Brent, current crude palm oil prices cannot be sustained going towards the fourth quarter, when stocks will be at their seasonal peak
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