Global Ag News Headlines
TODAY——EXPORT INSPECTIONS—CROP PROGRESS/CONDITIONS
Overnight trade has SRW down roughly 7 cents, HRW down 5; HRS Wheat down 3, Corn is up 1 cent; Soybeans up 1, Soymeal up $1.50, and Soyoil down 30 points.
For the week, SRW Wheat prices were up roughly 5 cents; HRW unchanged; HRS up 1; Corn was down 4 cents; Soybeans up 4; Soymeal up $4.00, and; Soyoil down 20 points. Crushing margins were up 5 at 91 cents; Oil share down 1% at 33%.
Chinese Ag futures (Sep) settled up 8 yuan, up 60 in Corn, up 47 in Soymeal, down 44 in Soyoil, and up 16 in Palm Oil.
Malaysian palm oil prices were at 2,737 (basis October) at midsession setting to snap a 3 day rally as discount to soyoil narrows.
U.S. Weather Forecast
The Midwest forecast sees a cold front working through the SE 2/3rd of the Midwest in the next 36-48 hours and will bring moderate rain amounts with good coverage; things then look to quiet down.
The 6-10 day forecast for this time frame for the Midwest sees fairly limited rains for most of the region any rainfall is seen for northern sections of the Midwest and the Ohio River Valley; temps are seen running near average.
The 11-16 day outlook for the Midwest calls for average to a bit below average rainfall for the Midwest, with temps to run average early and a bit below late.
The 6-10 day forecast for the Southern Plains has moderate falling SE KS and NE OK, with mainly dry weather to dominate the rest of the region through the period; temps will be running below average
The 6-10 day forecast for the Delta sees moderate rainfall for the region with good coverage.
The player sheet had funds net buyers of 1,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; net sold 6,000 Corn; bought 2,000 Soybeans; net bought 2,000 lots of soymeal, and; bought 2,000 Soyoil.
We estimate Managed Money net long 4,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; short 125,000 Corn; net long 88,000 Soybeans; net short 23,000 lots of Soymeal, and; long 36,000 Soyoil.
Preliminary Open Interest saw SRW Wheat futures up roughly 2,300 contracts; HRW Wheat up 1,100; Corn up 19,300; Soybeans down 255 contracts; Soymeal up 790 lots, and; Soyoil up 680.
There were changes in registrations (Soyoil down 33)—Registrations total 95 contracts for SRW Wheat; ZERO Oats; Corn ZERO; Soybeans ZERO; Soyoil 2,753 lots; Soymeal 511; Rice 174; HRW Wheat 47, and; HRS 1,387.
Global grain markets are well supplied, as the fundamental production outlook is generally positive and food-protection measures instituted in March-April have been eased or removed entirely, Fitch Solutions says; most of the price weakness recorded in the year to date for corn and soybean is behind us as critical demand weakness is dissipating for now; it notes ethanol production and prices have revived and livestock processing has rebounded as U.S. meat factories reopen; given the rebound in demand, and much lower-than-expected U.S. corn plantings and a slight drop in yields, we continue to expect corn prices to outperform.
The recent favorable weather across the U.S. Corn Belt has increasingly supported big corn and soybean yield predictions, reducing the chances for supply concerns heading into next year; however, this month’s huge export demand from China for both U.S. crops has prevented speculators from big selloffs in Chicago-traded grains and oilseeds, and the general optimism was still prevalent late last week.
China’s corn futures contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange surged 3.5% to a record high of 2,328 yuan ($332.52) per ton on Monday afternoon; corn futures prices have made gains in recent days, rising as much as 4.3 percent last week. ($1 = 7.0010 Chinese yuan renminbi)
Chinese corn prices continue to firm, as futures continue to rally with the September contract hitting new highs, says senior Asia commodity analyst at StoneX; corn contracts are now up 15% from the start of the year; the government’s decision to sell wheat and rice–which can substitute for corn in animal feed—from state reserves has done little to damp the price increases
China’s soybean imports in June from top supplier Brazil soared to a record high, according to customs data released on Sunday, driven by growing demand for soybeans as China’s pig herd recovers after deadly outbreaks of African swine fever; the world’s top soybean buyer brought in 10.51 million tons of the oilseed from the South American country in June, up 91% from 5.5 million tons in the previous year; the June figures were also up 18.6% from May imports from Brazil at 8.86 million tons
China’s overall soybean imports in June were a record 11.16 million tons as Chinese processors also made the most of lower Brazilian prices as better weather facilitated exports; China brought in 267,553 tons of soybeans from the United States in June, down 56.5% from 614,805 tons in the previous year; imports fell 45.6% from 491,697 tons in May
China imported 400,000 tons of pork in June, customs data showed, up 128.4 percent from the same month a year earlier, as a months-long buying spree continued as importers try to help plug a domestic shortage; the imports mark the fourth straight month of pork shipments of around 400,000 tons, double the volume of earlier records; January to June pork imports were up 142.7 percent at 2.12 million tons.
Beef imports including offal in June were 180,000 tons, up 31.2 percent from a year earlier, said customs, with shipments for first-half 2020 reaching 1.01 million tons
China will sell 10,000 tons of frozen pork from state reserves on July 30, the China Merchandise Reserve Management Center said; China has already sold more than 400,000 tons of pork from reserves this year to tame prices that have soared after the deadly African swine fever decimated the domestic pig herd
BRAZIL SECOND CORN HARVEST REACHES 55.6% OF PLANTED AREA VERSUS 70.7% LAST SEASON AND HISTORICAL AVERAGE OF 56.4% – ARC MERCOSUL
Russian wheat export prices rose for the third consecutive week last week as farmers in southern regions were slow to ship out the new crop, analysts said; Russian wheat with 12.5% protein loading from Black Sea ports was at $210 a ton free on board (FOB) for supply in August at the end of last week, up $1 from the week before, the IKAR agriculture consultancy said; SovEcon pegged it at $209 per ton, up $0.5.
Russia’s July exports of wheat, barley and maize (corn) are expected at 3.5 million tons, up from 550,000 tons estimated in June, the SovEcon agriculture consultancy said.
Ukraine’s 2020/21 July-June season grain exports remain slow at 1.11 million tons so far versus around 2.44 million tons at the same point a season earlier, the economy ministry said; the exports included 396,000 tons of corn, 412,000 tons of wheat and 301,000 tons of barley as of July 24.
Ukraine has harvested 20.6 million tons of grain from 38% of the sown area so far 2020 as of July 23, the economy ministry said; the volume included 12.8 million tons of wheat, 6.4 million tons of barley
Ukrainian wheat export prices have risen slightly over the past week supported by demand from importers and a delay in grain harvest, analyst APK-Inform said; APK-Inform said in a report Ukrainian 12.5 protein wheat was traded at around $207-$210 per ton FOB Black Sea compared with $205-209 a week earlier; wheat with 11.5 protein content added $2-3 per tons over the past week to $203-206 per ton FOB Black Sea, the consultancy said.
The soft wheat crop in France this year will be among the smallest in 25 years at 29.22 million tons after adverse weather hit both area and yields, Agritel said; that would be 26% below the bumper crop which the European Union’s largest producer harvested in 2019.
Egypt’s wheat storage capacity has increased to more than 4 million tons, up from a capacity of 3.6 million tons at the end of 2019, a supply ministry official said; Egypt, the world’s largest wheat importer, has been trying to increase its capacity by building more silos in recent years.
Indonesia will keep its export tax for crude palm oil (CPO) at zero for a fifth month in August, a document from the Trade Ministry showed; the reference price for CPO exports is set at $656.89 per ton for August, up from $622.47 in July; this is below a $750 per ton price threshold for exports tax to be imposed
Exports of Malaysian palm oil products for July 1 – 25 rose 4.6 percent to 1,454,925 tons from 1,390,860 tons shipped during June 1 – 25, cargo surveyor Intertek Testing Services said
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