Global Ag News Headlines
Overnight trade has SRW down roughly 1 cent, HRW unchanged; HRS Wheat up 4, Corn is down 3 cents; Soybeans down 12, Soymeal down $3.00, and Soyoil down 45 points.
Chinese Ag futures (Sep) settled up 31 yuan, down 3 in Corn, down 41 in Soymeal, down 94 in Soyoil, and down 92 in Palm Oil.
Malaysian palm oil prices were down 62 ringgit at 2,609 (basis October) at midsession on cheaper rival oils, further position-evening.
U.S. Weather Forecast
The Midwest 6 to 10 day weather forecast saw no major changes as the GFS is still indicating some rains to fall in the OH River Valley over the weekend with things fairly quiet elsewhere for the period; temps are seen near average.
The 11 to 16 day forecast for the Midwest looks for average to a bit below average rainfall with temps to run average to a bit below.
The Southern Plains 6 to 10 day forecast had no major changes as light to moderate rainfall is seen in southeast Kansas and northeast Oklahoma with mainly dry weather to dominate the rest of the region through the period.
The player sheet had funds net sellers of 11,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; net sold 5,000 Corn; bought 2,000 Soybeans; net bought 2,000 lots of soymeal, and; sold 2,000 Soyoil.
We estimate Managed Money net short 7,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; short 130,000 Corn; net long 90,000 Soybeans; net short 21,000 lots of Soymeal, and; long 34,000 Soyoil.
Preliminary Open Interest saw SRW Wheat futures up roughly 215 contracts; HRW Wheat up 3,600; Corn up 2,900; Soybeans up 4,300 contracts; Soymeal up 1,300 lots, and; Soyoil down 6,100.
There were no changes in registrations—Registrations total 95 contracts for SRW Wheat; ZERO Oats; Corn ZERO; Soybeans ZERO; Soyoil 2,753 lots; Soymeal 511; Rice 174; HRW Wheat 47, and; HRS 1,387.
Tender Activity—Egypt seeks optional-origin wheat—
U.S. Winter Wheat harvested was 81% (trade estimate was 83%) versus 74% last week, 73% a year ago, 82% average.
U.S. Spring Wheat harvested was 1% versus NA% last week, 1% a year ago, 3% average.
Spring Wheat was rated 70% good to excellent (trade estimate was 68%) versus 68% last week, and 73% a year ago; 24% fair (25% a week ago, 21% a year ago), and; 6% poor to very poor (7% last week, 6% a year ago).
Corn doughing was 22% versus 9% a week ago, 11 last year, and 17% average.
Corn was rated 72% good to excellent (trade estimate was 69%) versus 69% last week, and 58% a year ago; 21% fair (23% last week, 30% last year), 7% poor to very poor (8% last week, 12% last year).
U.S. Oats harvested was 32% versus 20% a week ago, 18% last year, and 30% average.
Oats were rated 61% good to excellent versus 61% last week and 66% a year ago; 27% fair (29% last week, 26% a year ago), and; 12% poor to very poor (10% last week, 8% a year ago).
U.S. Soybeans setting pods was 43% versus 25% a week ago, 17% last year, and 36% average.
U.S. Soybeans were rated 72% good to excellent (trade estimate was 69%) versus 69% a week ago, and 54% a year ago; 22% fair (24% last week, 33% a year ago), and; 6% poor to very poor (7% last week, 13% a year ago).
Strong yield expectations continue for the U.S. Crop Watch corn and soybeans, but the fields in North Dakota are once again grappling with too much rain, while those in Nebraska and Ohio have not received enough; elsewhere, rainfall has been favorable for the crops, which are in or entering the yield-formation stage; the producers reported that last week’s temperatures and those expected over the next several days are largely ideal.
Yesterday’s U.S. weekly export inspections had
—Wheat exports running up 8% ahead of a year ago (up 5% last week) with the USDA currently forecasting a 2% decrease on the year
—Corn 16% behind a year ago (17% last week) with the USDA down 14% for the season
—Soybeans are down 4% on the year (down 2% last week) with the USDA having a 6% decrease forecasted on the year
Trade, technology and security at risk in US-China feud
They have the largest economies in the world; they spend more than anyone else on their militaries; from high-tech chips to control of the high seas, their interests are closely intertwined; the ongoing sharp deterioration in U.S.-China ties poses risks to both countries and the rest of the world; in the latest escalation, a U.S. consulate in Chengdu in southwestern China shuttered Monday, ordered by China to close in retaliation for the U.S. shutting down its consulate in Houston last week; with the U.S. presidential campaign heating up, all bets are that relations with China will only get worse.
The wholesale prices of China’s agricultural products edged up Tuesday, according to the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs; the latest China agricultural product wholesale price index came in at 117.74, up 0.3 points from Monday; the average wholesale price of pork, a staple meat in China, rose 0.6 percent to 48.9 yuan (about 7 U.S. dollars) per kg, while eggs climbed 3.8 percent to 7.9 yuan per kg.
Brazilian soybean output in the 2020/2021 season is forecast to reach a record of 129.15 million tons, up 3.44% from the prior season, as local farmers are poised to expand plantings at the fastest pace since the 2014/2015 cycle, according to a consultancy; Arc Mercosul, in its first projection for the coming season, also forecast that Brazil’s soybean planted area will reach 38.43 million hectares (94.9m acres) in the cycle that will begin in September, up 3.8% from last year and the fastest annual acreage expansion in years.
IKAR, one of the leading agriculture consultancies in Moscow, said on Monday that it had raised its forecast for Russia’s 2020 wheat crop to 78 million tons from the previously expected 76.5 million tons due to high yields in some regions.
Kazakhstan has raised its 2020 grain crop forecast to 20.5 million tons from 18-18.5 million tons, the Deputy Agriculture Minister said
Soft wheat exports from the European Union totaled 556,000 tons in the 2020/21 season to July 26, official EU data showed; that was 62% below the volume exported in the same period of the previous season; the current season started on July 1
European Union soybean imports in the 2020/21 season to July 26 totaled 1 million tons, official EU data showed; that was 17% below the volume exported in the previous 2019/20 season
European wheat prices tumbled on Monday in tandem with U.S. markets on plentiful global supplies, notably in major exporter Russia, and pressured by the surge of the euro against the dollar; front-month September milling wheat closed down 1.8% at an intraday low of 182.50 euros a ton.
South Africa will likely harvest 37% more maize in 2020 compared with the previous season after favorable weather conditions boosted yields, a survey showed; South Africa’s Crop Estimates Committee (CEC) is expected to forecast the 2019/2020 maize production at 15.461 million tons, up from 11.275 million tons harvested in the 2018/2019 season, which was impacted by dry weather conditions; the estimate is slightly lower than the CEC’s June forecast of 15.514 million.
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