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TODAY–AUGUST FIRST NOTICE DAY—COMMITMENT OF TRADERS

Overnight trade has SRW up roughly 4 cents, HRW up 4; HRS Wheat up 2, Corn is up 1 cent; Soybeans up 5, Soymeal up $2.50, and Soyoil up 5.

For the week, SRW Wheat prices are down roughly 5 cents; HRW down 5; HRS unchanged; Corn is down 7 cents; Soybeans down 6; Soymeal up $2.00, and; Soyoil down 10 points. Crushing margins are up 8 at 99 cents; Oil share unchanged at 33%.

For the month, SRW Wheat prices are up roughly 40 cents; HRW up 3; HRS down 5; Corn is down 22 cents; Soybeans up 11; Soymeal up $5.00, and; Soyoil up 140 points. Crushing margins are up 14 cents at 99, Oil share up 1 at 33%.

Chinese Ag futures (Sep) settled up 58 yuan in soybeans, up 26 in Corn, down 5 in Soymeal, up 32 in Soyoil, and down 20 in Palm Oil.

U.S. Weather Forecast

The 6 to 10 day outlook for the Midwest has rains falling across the regions Friday of next and through the weekend; temps will be running below average over the next 10 days.

The 11 to 16 day forecast for the Midwest has the GFS model showing below average rainfall and below average temps; the European above average temps and limited rain.

The 6 to 10 day for the Southern Plains sees light to moderate rainfall in the eastern sections of the region with below normal temps.

The 6 to 10 day forecast for the Delta is light rains for half of the region’

The player sheet had funds net sellers of 2,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; net even in Corn; bought 2,000 Soybeans; net bought 3,000 lots of soymeal, and; bought 3,000 Soyoil.

We estimate Managed Money net short 6,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; short 161,000 Corn; net long 78,000 Soybeans; net short 22,000 lots of Soymeal, and; long 37,000 Soyoil.

Preliminary Open Interest saw SRW Wheat futures up roughly 2,800 contracts; HRW Wheat down 1,400; Corn up 5,800; Soybeans down 3,400 contracts; Soymeal up 520 lots, and; Soyoil up 2,600.

Deliveries were 24 Soymeal; 412 Soyoil, and ZERO Soybeans

There were changes in registrations (Soyoil down 36)—Registrations total 95 contracts for SRW Wheat; ZERO Oats; Corn ZERO; Soybeans ZERO; Soyoil 2,717 lots; Soymeal 511; Rice 174; HRW Wheat 47, and; HRS 1,387. 

Tender Activity—Tunisia bought 75,000t optional-origin wheat–

Chinese buyers booked their single biggest-ever purchase of U.S. corn, extending their flurry of large U.S. purchases even as tensions between Washington and Beijing rise; the U.S. Agriculture Department said on Thursday that private exporters sold 1.937 million tons of corn to China for delivery in the 2020/21 marketing year; that topped the previous biggest deal to China of 1.762 million tons, reported just two weeks ago.

Corn prices in China are soaring, which could be good news for American farmers; as China’s formerly bloated stockpiles shrink, prices have climbed to a five-year high; since January, front-month corn futures on the Dalian Commodity Exchange have risen 27% to about 2,306 yuan ($329) a metric ton, a level last seen in the summer of 2015; back in 2016, the Chinese government ended a long-running price-guarantee program for corn farmers that had led to the accumulation of massive amounts of the grain; withdrawing the supports caused Chinese corn prices to plunge; low prices and the lingering oversupply led farmers to cut back production.

Agricultural commodities trader Archer Daniels Midland Co. expects a groundswell of export demand in the second half of 2020, led by robust purchases by China, as the coronavirus pandemic fuels food security concerns around the world; ample U.S. supplies of crops like soybeans, corn and wheat could help propel ADM to a record fourth-quarter profit

U.S. ports should be very active later in the year as aggressive Chinese bookings have boosted total corn and soybean export sales to modern-day and potentially all-time record levels for July; hat follows the recent multi-year low export levels after last year’s crops fell short; China’s recent U.S. corn purchases are likely larger than the market thought they would be this early on, though while its soybean deals for next year sit at six-year highs, there is a long way to go to reach the expected targets.

The U.S. soybean crush is expected to have dropped for a third straight month in June, sinking to 5.333 million short tons, or 177.8 million bushels; estimates ranged from 171.7 million bushels to 186.0 million bushels.

The USDA is scheduled to release its monthly fats and oils report at 2 p.m. CDT (1900 GMT) on Monday.

If realized, it would be the biggest June crush on record, eclipsing the previous record of 169.5 million bushels set in June 2018. But it would be down from a May crush of 179.5 million bushels and the smallest monthly crush since February.

U.S. soyoil stocks at the end of June were projected to slip to 2.336 billion lbs from 2.447 billion lbs at the end of May; soyoil stocks estimates ranged from 2.297 billion to 2.351 billion lbs

Brazil’s soybean production is expected to jump to a record of more than 130 million tonnes next season, as attractive prices drive farmers to boost plantings and yields are seen recovering after a drought, according to the average of analysts’ estimates polled; the poll shows that farmers in Brazil may increase output by about 8% in the 2020/2021 cycle, a potential 10 million ton rise from the 120.9 million tons the government says Brazil harvested in the last cycle.

Frosts over recent mornings in Argentina’s central farm belt piled stress onto wheat crops already suffering from prolonged dry weather, the Buenos Aires Grains Exchange said in its weekly report; dry conditions started hitting wheat crops in early June, prompting the exchange to cut its 2020/21 wheat planting estimate to 6.5 million hectares from an original 6.8 million; despite the warning on Thursday, the exchange kept its wheat sowing estimate unchanged.

The European Commission on Thursday cut its 2020/21 forecast for usable common wheat production in the European Union’s 27 countries to 116.6 million tons from 117.2 million estimated a month ago; in supply and demand projections, the Commission left unchanged its forecast for EU-27 exports of common wheat, or soft wheat, for the 2020/21 season that started in July at 25.0 million tons.

European wheat prices continued to rise on Thursday with farmers’ reluctance to sell as they hoped for better prices continuing to support nearby contracts; weak U.S. markets and a fresh rise in the euro against the dollar were pressuring contracts for later delivery as it would further dent the competitiveness of European grains on world markets; front-month September milling wheat closed 1.00 euro higher at 182.75 euros a ton, while December was unchanged and further deliveries edged lower.

French farmers had harvested 90% of this year’s soft wheat crop by July 27, up from 71% a week earlier, farm office FranceAgriMer said; the condition of French soft wheat crops declined slightly in the week to July 27, with 56% of crops rated good or excellent against 57% the previous week, well below the year-earlier level of 75%

Grain maize conditions also fell, with 77% of the harvest in good/excellent condition by July 27 from 80% the previous week.

Indonesia’s plans to raise the bio-content of its palm oil-based biodiesel to 40% – known as B40 – is back on schedule with a target for implementation by July 2021, Coordinating Minister for Economic said; Indonesia, which has been increasing the palm oil content of its biodiesel since 2015, wants to cut its energy imports and increase consumption of palm oil.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone.  Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition.  The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM.  The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared.  The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets.  However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.

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