Global Ag News Headlines for June 8
Grains are higher. SN is up 1 cent and near 8.69. CN is up 3 cents and near 3.34. WN is up 1 cent and near 5.16. US stocks are higher. US stocks rallied Friday on better than expected US jobs data. Crude is higher. OPEC agreed to extend production curbs which should help Crude.
In the Midwest, things will be mainly dry across the region through Monday and then by Tuesday morning, the remnants of tropical storm Cristobal will be working into MO and will go on to impact most of IA, MN, the NW 1/3rd of IL and most of WI later Tuesday into Wednesday. US Midwest 6-10 day outlook has mixed ideas from the models. The European sees dry weather to dominate all of the region, while the GFS sees rains to fall in most of MO, IA, MN and WI. 11-16 day- The ridging that develops in the 6-10 day period is indicated by the models to continue through this period as well. Southern US Plains 6-10 day looks to be dry in most areas for this period. Delta 6-10 day sees little in the way of rainfall to occur.
This week, USDA will update US/World supply and demand. Trade looks for US corn crop near 15,917 mil bu vs USDA 15.995 and soybean crop at 4,138 mil bu vs 4.125. Trade also looks for US 2019/20 corn carryout near 2,163 vs 2,098, soybean near USDA 580 and Wheat near USDA 978. Trade looks for US 2020/2 corn carryout near 3.356 vs USDA 3,318, soybean near 429 vs USDA 405 and wheat near USDA 909.
Some feel given the numbers the soybean futures market could be 20-25 cents from a seasonal high. Trade will watch to see if funds want to cover any of their record corn short. Most feel Dec corn is near season high. Black Sea weather forecast is dry. Still large World supplies could limit the upside in Sep Chicago wheat near 5.30 and KC Sep wheat near 4.85. Managed Funds were shorter corn and soymeal than expected.
On Friday, Managed funds were net sellers of 6,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; net bought 5,000 Corn; net bought 1,000 Soybeans; net sold 1,000 Soymeal, and; net bought 3,000 Soyoil. We estimate Managed Money net short 6,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; net short 267,000 Corn; net long 25,000 Soybeans; net short 46,000 lots of Soymeal, and; are net long 14,000 Soyoil.
Overnight trade has SRW up roughly 1 cent, HRW up 3; HRS Wheat down 1, Corn is up 2 cents; Soybeans up 1, Soymeal up $0.50, and Soyoil up 15 points.
For the week, SRW Wheat prices were down roughly 2 cents; HRW down 7; HRS down 3; Corn was up 7 cents; Soybeans up 28 cents; Soymeal up $7.00, and; Soyoil up 85 points. Crushing margins were up 6 cents at 95; Oil share unchanged at 32%.
Chinese Ag futures (Sep) settled up 62 yuan, down 4 yuan in Corn, down 21 in Soymeal, up 2 in Soyoil, and down 16 in Palm Oil.
Malaysian palm oil prices were closed for holiday.
U.S. Weather Forecast
In the Midwest, things will be mainly dry across the region through Monday and then by Tuesday morning, the remnants of tropical storm Cristobal will be working into MO and will go on to impact most of IA, MN, the NW 1/3rd of IL and most of WI later Tuesday into Wednesday.
The 6-10 day- The outlook for this time frame has mixed ideas from the models; the European sees dry weather to dominate all of the region, while the GFS sees rains to fall in most of MO, IA, MN and WI.
11-16 day- The ridging that develops in the 6-10 day period is indicated by the models to continue through this period as well
Southern US Plains
The 6-10 day- Things look to be dry in most areas for this period.
The 6-10 day sees little in the way of rainfall to occur; the European model is dry while the GFS sees some light rain coverage.
The player sheet had funds net sellers of 6,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; net bought 5,000 Corn; net bought 1,000 Soybeans; net sold 1,000 Soymeal, and; net bought 3,000 Soyoil.
We estimate Managed Money net short 6,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; net short 267,000 Corn; net long 25,000 Soybeans; net short 46,000 lots of Soymeal, and; are net long 14,000 Soyoil.
Preliminary Open Interest saw SRW Wheat futures down roughly 6,600 contracts; HRW Wheat down 3,500; Corn up 12,400; Soybeans down 70 contracts; Soymeal down 5,200 lots, and; Soyoil up 1,900.
There were no changes in registrations—Registrations total 11 contracts for SRW Wheat; ZERO Oats; Corn ZERO; Soybeans ZERO; Soyoil 3,495 lots; Soymeal 511; Rice 106; HRW Wheat 17, and; HRS Wheat 488 contracts.
TODAY—EXPORT INSPECTIONS—CROP PROGRESS—
Despite record-setting amounts of rain once again drenching many parts of Illinois in May, farmers across the state have managed to get the majority of their crops in the ground; according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s most recent crop progress report, released on June 1, Illinois farmers are running slightly ahead where they normally are in the growing season; and, they are far outpacing last year’s planting season, when windows of opportunity were few and far between due to weeks of untimely rain across the state; most farmers did not get their crops in until June last year; about 92% of corn has been planted this year compared to 42% last year while 74% of soybeans have been planted versus just 19% last year; we’re in a lot better shape now than we were last year, fortunately.
Wheat farmer board members of the Kansas Association of Wheat Growers and Kansas Wheat Commission held board meetings this week via conference call; they discussed current crop conditions throughout the state; with high temperatures in the mid-90s and strong winds, the wheat crop is maturing quickly.
Speculators have been bearish toward Chicago-traded corn for 10 months and they opened June with the most negative view in more than a year, despite the fact that futures have largely trended upward since the end of April.
In Washington, D.C., U.S. ethanol exports were 99.4 million gallons (mg) in April, a decline of 40.5 mg (29%) from March; notably lighter sales to our largest markets, Brazil (23.8 mg, -36%) and Canada (10.8 mg, -61% to the lowest volume since August 2010) accounted for three-fourths of that drop, according to the RFA.
U.S. exports of dried distillers grains (DDGS)—the animal feed co-product generated by dry-mill ethanol plants—declined by 15% in April to 765,635 metric tons (mt); worldwide U.S. DDGS sales for the first four months of the year imply an annualized export volume of 10.48 million mt
Alberta crop report
Crop Conditions as of June 2, 2020; precipitation in the last week both helped and hindered Alberta producers; in areas where seeding is complete moisture is helping with development of the crops; meanwhile in areas that have faced challenges seeding this year’s crop, rain has caused further delay; generally, all areas would benefit from some warmer weather; provincial seeding of the 2020 crop is at 93 per cent, up 14 per cent from last week; this is slightly behind the five-year average of 94 per cent.
More than 50 percent of the winter-season wheat in China has been harvested, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs said; farmers have harvested wheat in 170 million mu (11.33 million hectares) of fields as of Friday, a rate of progress that is about three days ahead compared to previous years
China’s agricultural products trade reported a deficit of 28.62 billion U.S. dollars in the first four months of 2020, up 18.2 percent year-on-year, official statistics showed; imports increased by 8 percent year-on-year to 51.53 billion U.S. dollars while exports went down by 2.6 percent to 22.91 billion U.S. dollars; total farm produce trade volume rose by 4.5 percent year-on-year to 74.44 billion U.S. dollars in the first four months
—Total imports of corn grew by 29.8 percent year-on-year to 2.14 million tonnes from January to April while imports of pork reached 1.32 million tonnes, up 180 percent year-on-year
—China’s soybean imports in May surged 27.4% from the previous year, as a large volume of shipments from top supplier Brazil arrived after weather improved in the South American country, customs data showed; China brought in 9.38 million tonnes of soybeans in May, up from last year’s 7.36 million tonnes; the figures mark the highest monthly increase since December’s 9.54 million tonnes, and up from 6.714 million tonnes in April
—China imported 816,000 tonnes of meat in May, customs data showed, down 5.3% from a month earlier; the General Administration of Customs did not provide a comparable figure for the same month a year ago, but data showed imports during the first five months of 2020 soared 73.4% compared with January-May 2019 to 3.85 million tonnes.
BRAZIL’S SECOND CORN HARVEST REACHES 2.4% OF THE TOTAL AREA, AHEAD OF THE HISTORICAL AVERAGE OF 1.8% -ARC MERCOSUL
Russia’s southern Stavropol region, one of country’s main grain producing areas, may see its 2020 crop fall by 40% compared with last year due to cold weather and drought, the Interfax news agency said; Russia is currently expected to harvest a total of 120 million tonnes of grain in 2020, slightly less than in 2019 as yields are set to decline in the southern regions
Russian export prices for the new wheat crop, due to be harvested over the summer months of June to August, rose last week as the market anticipated dry weather would mean lower volumes in part of Russia’s south; Russian wheat with 12.5% protein loaded from Black Sea ports and for delivery in July was at $204.5 a tonne free on board (FOB) at the end of last week, up $2.5 from a week earlier, SovEcon consultancy said; another consultancy IKAR pegged new crop wheat for delivery in July-August at $206 a tonne, up $6.
Ukrainian farms have almost completed the 2020 sowing, seeding 15.3 million hectares of various crops, or 98% of the expected 15.5 million, the economy ministry said; the acreage includes 5.3 million hectares of corn, 5.99 million hectares of sunflower, 1.3 million hectares of soybeans and 516,480 hectares of barley; the ministry has said the 2020 grain harvest could fall to 65-68 million tonnes from a record 75 million tonnes in 2019.
Ukraine’s grain exports have reached a record 54.8 million tonnes so far in the 2019/20 season that began in July, 7.6 million tonnes more than a year ago, the Ministry for Development of Economy, Trade and Agriculture said; the exported volume included 20.2 million tonnes of wheat, 29 million tonnes of corn and 4.9 million tonnes of barley
APK-Inform agriculture consultancy said on Friday it had increased its forecast for Ukraine’s sunflower seed output in 2020 to 16.0 million-16.2 million tonnes from the previous estimate of 15.5 million tonnes; Ukraine harvested 15.45 million tonnes of sunseed in 2019.
Rain in Europe this week has brought relief to parched wheat belts but more moisture is needed to prevent this summer’s harvest shrinking further compared with last year’s bumper crop; a dry spring has increased growing difficulties for wheat crops in parts of Europe after a soggy autumn and winter that cut sowing and prevented crops establishing strong roots; we’re heading towards one of the smallest wheat crops of the last decade in Europe, Agritel said; this rain may at least stabilize the situation; the European Commission last week cut its monthly forecast of this year’s common wheat crop in the European Union, excluding Britain, by over 4 million tonnes to 121.5 million, 7% below last year’s level.
French soft wheat shipments outside the EU fell to a five-month low in May as activity eased after a busy season that has put France on course for record full-year exports; however, last month’s shipments still marked the highest May volume since the 2015/16 season.
—Soft wheat exports to destinations outside the European Union totalled 1.24 million tonnes last month; the May volume was about 300,000 tonnes lower than non-EU soft wheat exports the previous month, and the lowest monthly volume since December; last month’s exports took the amount of soft wheat shipped to non-EU destinations in the 2019/20 season, which ends on June 30, to about 12.2 million tonnes; that means France would have to ship 1.1 million tonnes of soft wheat in June to meet farming agency FranceAgriMer’s forecast for 2019/20 French exports of a record 13.3 million tonnes
Australia said China remains unresponsive to its weeks-long pleas to ease tensions between the two trading partners that escalated after Canberra called for an international enquiry into the origins of the novel coronavirus.
India’s edible oil imports are likely to recover in June after a sharp drop during a nationwide lockdown to contain COVID-19 in April and May, according to industry experts; India is expected to buy 1.14 million tonnes of vegetable oils this month compared with the average of 865,000 tonnes in the previous two months, the president of the Indian Vegetable Oil Producers’ Association (IVPA) said
Wheat shortage in Pakistan despite sufficient stocks; the surge in the prices of wheat flour in Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) [provinces] and shortage of grains in KP has turned out to be surprising as the annual procurement of the commodity has just concluded in the four provinces; there are more than sufficient stocks of wheat available in government stores at the moment, providing no justification for increase in prices and wheat shortage for flour millers; however, in view of lesser yield this year for various reasons, such a situation may arise after a few months if wheat was not imported on time.
Indonesia exported 2.65 million tonnes of palm oil and its refined products in April, the Indonesia Palm Oil Association (GAPKI) said; in comparison, the country exported 2.72 million tonnes of palm oil and its products a month earlier; crude palm oil output were up 12.6% on month in April, GAPKI’s statement said, while stockpiles stood at 3.4 million tonnes at the end of April, little changed from a month earlier.
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