Global Ag News Headlines June 15
Overnight trade has SRW down roughly 1 cents, HRW down 2; HRS Wheat unchanged, Corn is down 2 cents; Soybeans down 5, Soymeal down $2.00, and Soyoil down 40 points.
For the week, SRW Wheat prices were down roughly 14 cents; HRW down 12; HRS down 7; Corn was down 2 cents; Soybeans unchanged; Soymeal unchanged, and; Soyoil down 65 points. Crushing margins were down 6 cents at 89 cents; Oil share unchanged at 32%.
Chinese Ag futures (Sep) settled up 51 yuan, up 20 yuan in Corn, up 1 in Soymeal, up 4 in Soyoil, and up 20 in Palm Oil.
Malaysian palm oil prices were down 41 ringgit at 2,330 (basis August) tracking Asian equities.
U.S. Weather Forecast
The 6 to 10 day has strongly mixed ideas from the models for the Midwest; the European sees rains rains to fall in far eastern MN, the NE 2/3rd of IA, far NW IL and most of WI to fall late Saturday night into Sunday; rains are also seen for the OH River later Sunday into early Monday, with things fairly quiet elsewhere.
The GFS sees rains to fall in nearly all of the region, with far northern IL and SE WI to miss most of the rains.
The 11-16 day-ideas in this time frame see ridging to dominate most of the pattern across the central US, producing above average temps and below average precip in all of the Midwest; temps will run above average in the far western Midwest for most of this week, with average to a bit below above average readings elsewhere; temps by the weekend and first half of next week look to run average to above in all of the region.
Southern US Plains – Winter Wheat
The 6-10 day—The models are mixed in this time frame, with the GFS indicating rains to fall in all but far western KS and totals of excess in SE KS and the eastern ½ of OK; the European sees rains of lighter amounts; temps will run above average for the next 10 days
The 6-10 day has strongly mixed ideas from the models, with the GFS indicating rains to fall in most areas; the European sees totals of .50-1” with coverage of around 70%- favoring AR and N MS
The bottom line for the United States over the next two weeks will prove mostly favorable for crop development; all areas will get at least a little rain, but some areas will receive below average amounts leading to some net drying.
The player sheet had funds net buyers of 2,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; net sold 1,000 Corn; net bought 5,000 Soybeans; net sold 1,000 Soymeal, and; net sold 1,000 Soyoil.
We estimate Managed Money net short 27,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; net short 293,000 Corn; net long 29,000 Soybeans; net short 51,000 lots of Soymeal, and; are net short 7,000 Soyoil.
Preliminary Open Interest saw SRW Wheat futures up roughly 2,300 contracts; HRW Wheat down 3,800; Corn down 11,200; Soybeans up 17,100 contracts; Soymeal down 595 lots, and; Soyoil down 4,300.
There were no changes in registrations—Registrations total 11 contracts for SRW Wheat; ZERO Oats; Corn ZERO; Soybeans ZERO; Soyoil 3,495 lots; Soymeal 511; Rice 106; HRW Wheat 17, and; HRS Wheat 488 contracts.
TODAY—EXPORT INSPECTIONS—NOPA CRUSH—CROP PROGRESS—
Tender Activity—Taiwan seeks 65,000t optional-origin corn—Egypt seeks optional-origin soy, sunoil-
Wire story reports food commodity markets shift into buying mode after days of selling even without meaningful change in production and demand prospects
U.S. soybean crushings likely edged up slightly in May despite narrowing processor margins as export demand for soymeal remained strong, according to analysts polled ahead of a monthly National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) report due on Monday
—The monthly crush is expected to reach the highest ever level for May and the fifth highest for any month on record; NOPA members likely processed 173.071 million bushels of soybeans in May; if realized, it would be a 0.8% increase from April’s 171.754-million-bushel crush and up 11.8% from May 2019, when NOPA members processed 154.796 million bushels; it would also top the previous May crush record of 163.572 million bushels set in 2018
—Crush estimates ranged from 164.1 million to 177.5 million bushels, with a median estimate of 175.0 million bushels.
—The monthly NOPA report will be released at 11 a.m. CDT on Monday
—Soyoil supplies were seen slipping to 2.068 billion pounds, down from a nearly seven-year high of 2.111 billion at the end of April and 1.581 billion at the end of May 2019; estimates for soyoil stocks ranged from 1.942 billion to 2.200 billion pounds
National Corn Growers Association
—U.S. Farm & Biofuel Leaders Demand Answers on Retroactive EPA Exemptions
During a Senate hearing last month, administration officials confirmed their consideration of retroactive small refinery exemptions (SREs) covering previous years; the “gap-filings” are designed to reconstitute a continuous string of exemptions for select oil companies “to be consistent with the Tenth Circuit decision,” thus circumventing court limits on new oil industry handouts at the expense of farmers and biofuel producers.
With China back in the U.S. soybean market and U.S. corn supplies seen hitting 33-year highs, speculators last week established their most bullish ever view of Chicago-traded soybeans relative to corn; further, investors’ views on soybeans and corn have never varied so drastically, even when considering their most bearish views toward this spread; the current trend is largely driven by funds’ near-record pessimism toward corn
Chicago brokers and traders worry the novel coronavirus will kill more of the city’s once famous shout-and-gesture trading pits; CME Group, which owns the Chicago Board of Trade, said this week that most of the pits it closed in March because of the pandemic will remain shuttered indefinitely; the news disappointed some brokers who hoped to return to the trading floor this month and are looking for other ways to make money
Alberta crop report
Crop Conditions as of June 9, 2020; with over 98 per cent of 2020 spring plantings in the ground, attention now shifts to crop development; provincially, 75 per cent of the crops have emerged, 12 per cent behind the previous five-year average (2015-2019); regionally, South, Central and North East regions are close to the five-year average; challenges continue for the northern parts of the province
China has retaken its mantle as America’s largest trading partner, emerging as a rare bright spot for U.S. farmers and other exporters as the coronavirus pandemic constrains global commerce; trade between the two nations rose to $39.7 billion in April, up nearly 43% from the month before, and enough to once again surpass Mexico and Canada; the jump followed the signing of a trade pact in January in which China agreed to sharply step up purchases of U.S. farm products and other goods; U.S.-China trade remains well below the record $61.4 billion set in October 2018, and economic fallout of the coronavirus pandemic has cast doubt on China’s ability to meet ambitious purchase targets set in the trade accord; China is nonetheless the only major world economy likely to post positive growth this year
The prices of live pigs in China went up 8.5 percent in early June compared with the previous 10 days, data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed; since last year, China has implemented a string of policies to encourage hog production and stabilize pork prices affected by African swine fever and other factors; to soften the impact of the novel coronavirus outbreak, China has ramped up financial support including subsidies and loans to major pig producing counties to restore production, and pork and hog prices have gradually retreated despite some fluctuations; Monday’s data also showed that of the 50 major goods monitored by the government, including seamless steel tubes, gasoline, coal, fertilizer and some chemicals, 32 saw prices increase during the period, 14 posted lower prices and four saw prices unchanged
China will step up the regulation of hog transport to further contain the spread of African swine fever, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs said; starting on July 1, companies and individuals that transport hogs will be required to register their basic personal information with a mini-program on WeChat, which will be managed by the national animal disease control authorities, the ministry said
Argentina’s export industry chamber said on Friday it was “deeply concerned” about the government’s planned takeover of Vicentin, one of the country’s top soy crushers and a key player in the agricultural export sector; the takeover, which will require congressional approval, was announced by President Alberto Fernandez at the start of the week, sending shock waves through the industry as farmers, Vicentin and other exporters fretted that government intervention in the industry could compromise its independence.
Ukrainian wheat export prices have risen by up to $7 a tonne over the past two weeks because of expected decreases in the 2020/21 harvest in Ukraine and other exporting countries, APK-Inform agriculture consultancy said
—Milling wheat from the new 2020 harvest was quoted at $178 to $188 a tonne CPT (Carriage Paid To) Black Sea as of June 15
—Analysts have said that severe drought followed by torrential rain could affect wheat quality this year
—APK-Inform said that feed wheat prices had also risen to between $168 and $178, from $160 to $164 in early June
Farmers in southern Ukraine have started the 2020 grain harvest and supplied the first railcars loaded with barley to sea ports for export, the Black Sea port of Nika-Tera said; analysts said this month that Ukraine is likely to start its 2020 winter grain harvest 8-10 days earlier than normal; the government has said unfavorable weather this year could cause the country’s grain crop to fall to 65-68 million tons from a record 75 million tons in 2019.
India’s consumption of sunflower and soybean oils is rising, in step with sinking sales of cheaper palm oil, which is used mostly in commercial establishments, because the lockdown shut hotels, restaurants and catering and increased the consumption of homemade food; the long shutdown will reduce cooking oil imports by 12% this fiscal; import of palm oil, used mostly in restaurants and hotels, is likely to fall 25% but consumption of soya and sunflower oils is expected to rise; there was a 40% drop in demand from the hotels, restaurants and catering sector during the lockdown; this sector constitutes about 35% of the total edible oil consumption in the country, said the president of the Indian Vegetable Oil Producers’ Association; he said palm oil was worst hit as it accounts for 65% of commercial demand
Algeria’s imports of cereals, semolina and flour rose 2.5% by value in the first quarter of 2020 from a year earlier, official data showed; the North African country, one of the world’s largest grain importers, has been trying to cut spending on cereal purchases and other goods to ease the impact of a fall in energy export revenue
Exports of Malaysian palm oil products for June 1 – 15 rose 82.7 percent to 922,251 tons from 504,928 tons shipped during May 1 – 15, according to independent inspection company AmSpec Agri Malaysia said
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