Global Ag News Headlines June 18
Overnight trade has SRW up roughly 1 cent, HRW up 3; HRS Wheat up 6, Corn is up 3 cents; Soybeans up 2, Soymeal up $1.00, and Soyoil unchanged.
Chinese Ag futures (Sep) settled up 40 yuan, up 17 yuan in Corn, down 2 in Soymeal, up 18 in Soyoil, and up 6 in Palm Oil.
Malaysian palm oil prices were steady at 2,361 ringgits (basis September) looking for fresh catalysts.
U.S. Weather Forecast
Last night’s GFS model run had an upper level low pressure area and associated cool air mass surging down over the Corn Belt and Great Lakes regions for Jun. 24 – 27; cooler than normal temperatures will occur in the region in this timeframe; however, last night’s run showed the air mass extensive enough to push significant rain into central and West Texas and western counties of the Texas Panhandle Jun. 25 – 27; some of this area will receive beneficial moisture this evening through Saturday.
The 6-10 Day Forecast U.S. forecast had rounds of showers and thunderstorms from Monday through Wednesday bringing moderate rainfall to near 100 percent of the Midwest.
The 6-10 Day Forecast for the Southern Plains has light to moderate rainfall in the eastern ½ of KS and OK with totals in the western seeing lesser amounts.
The player sheet had funds net sellers of 6,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; net bought 6,000 Corn; bought 6,000 Soybeans; were net even in soymeal, and; net bought 2,000 Soyoil.
We estimate Managed Money net short 40,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; short 291,000 Corn; net long 31,000 Soybeans; net short 53,000 lots of Soymeal, and; short 1,000 Soyoil.
Preliminary Open Interest saw SRW Wheat futures up roughly 4,400 contracts; HRW Wheat up 795; Corn down 7,000; Soybeans down 10,300 contracts; Soymeal down 640 lots, and; Soyoil down 3,300.
There were no changes in registrations—Registrations total 11 contracts for SRW Wheat; ZERO Oats; Corn ZERO; Soybeans ZERO; Soyoil 3,495 lots; Soymeal 511; Rice 106; HRW Wheat 17, and; HRS 488.
TODAY—WEEKLY EXPORT SALES—
Tender Activity—Egypt seeks optional-origin wheat—Tunisia seeks 176,000t optional-origin wheat—Japan bought 76,143t U.S./Australian wheat—Jordan passed on 120,000t optional-origin wheat—S. Korea seeks 69,000t optional-origin corn—Thailand bought 60,000t optional-origin feed wheat—
U.S. ethanol production for the week ended June 12th averaged 841,000 barrels per day (up 0.5% versus a week ago, down 22.2% versus a year ago); stocks totaled 21.3 mil barrels (down 2.1% versus a week ago, down 1.2% versus last year); corn use for the week was 85.9 mil bu (85.4 mil last week) and versus the 95.8 mil bu needed to meet USDA projections.
The U.S.-China trade deal shows no signs of weakening despite clashes between the two nations over the coronavirus pandemic, China’s crackdown on Hong Kong’s autonomy, and China’s falling behind on purchases of U.S. goods, U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer said; every indication is that in spite of this Covid-19, they are going to do what they say; we have an excellent agreement; when pressed on the broader range of U.S.-China issues, Mr. Lighthizer signaled he didn’t anticipate that they would impact the trade deal; if I try to solve all the problems between the U.S. and China, I’m going to end up not solving any of them; I have an obligation to operate in the trade space.
—China will step up communications with relevant countries to ensure the safety of imported foods, the commerce ministry said, amid concerns that imported foods may have contributed to a rise in COVID-19 infections in Beijing
POLL-U.S. May cattle marketings seen down 26.1% as virus hit meat plants – Reuters News
The value of beef exports has almost tripled between January and April this year compared to the same period in 2019, from $us 5.38 million to $us 14.74 million; China, with 78% of purchases, is the main market; after the People’s Republic of China, Peru and Ecuador are the other markets that acquire the Bolivian product, especially meats processed as frozen burgers, unlike the Asian giant that only acquires the product in cuts; similarly, sales volume grew from 1,222.2 tons to 3,266.6 tons during the same period
Canadian grain exporters are boosting sales in a slumping global economy, as demand for commodities like oil weakens and frees up railway space; brisk crop movement in a country that relies heavily on rail is a bright spot during pandemic lockdowns, which have hammered most industries; we’ve had an almost unlimited supply of rail cars and power; we’re shipping off the map; Canada exported a record 959,900 tons of wheat in the week ended May 10, although year-to-date volumes from Aug. 1 are behind; canola exports are 8% ahead of the year-ago pace.
Insults by Brazilian government officials aimed at China, the country’s main trading partner, are detrimental to Brazil’s business interests and “not even very smart,” the chief executive of Cargill’s local operations said; the aggressive stance against China sometimes taken by members of right-wing President Jair Bolsonaro’s government is “a great cause for concern; Bolsonaro has in the past criticized China’s growing economic role in Brazil and aligned his country with the United States.
Russia is expected to produce 122.5 million tons of grain this year, including 75 million tons of wheat, Russia’s union of grain exporters said on social media, citing a new forecast by the agriculture ministry; Russia’s agriculture ministry will not replenish its state stockpile of grain in the new season; the ministry previously expected the 2020 grain crop at 120 million tons.
—Russia’s agriculture ministry is set to change the mechanism it uses to set its grain export quotas and would present its final proposal on the issue in October, the Russian union of grain exports said; the ministry had said on Tuesday that Russia’s grain exports would not be subjected to any quotas from July to December but that it planned to impose quotas in the second half of the season running from January to June 2021
—Russia will export 43 million tons of grain this agricultural year from July 2019 to June 2020, and 45 million tons in the next agricultural year, which begins on July 1, 2020, the Agriculture Ministry said; the final amount of grain exports for the 2019/2020 agricultural season could amount to 43 million tons for a total of around $8.5 billion, which corresponds to the plans that were initially drawn up; we expect grain exports to amount to 45 million tons in 2020/2021, provided that the necessary volume of remainders carried over is maintainedUkrainian economy ministry has suspended publishing grain export data for the current 2019/20 season, a ministry official said; the ministry used to publish export data a few time a week, but the last information appeared on the ministry’s website on June 5; according to the ministry official grain export data might affect the market situation; Ukraine harvested a record 75 million tons of grain in 2019 and exported 54.8 million tons as of June 5.
Germany’s 2020 wheat crop will fall 3.7% on the year to 22.21 million tons, the country’s association of farm cooperatives said in its latest harvest estimate; that is slightly lower than the 22.38 million tons it forecast in May as some crops suffered from dry springtime weather
—The winter rapeseed crop is seen rising 13.3% from last summer’s especially poor crop to 3.20 million tons, slightly down from May’s estimate of 3.24 million tons with rapeseed also suffering from dryness
France wants to organize a conference with other European countries this autumn on how to reinforce “food sovereignty” following the novel coronavirus outbreak, its agriculture minister said; French President Emmanuel Macron has underlined the need for greater European sovereignty, particularly in healthcare, after the coronavirus exposed the reliance of countries including France on imported medical supplies; the Agriculture Minister said that while France could not be self-sufficient in all food products, it would look at being more autonomous in areas such as plant protein.
Cambodia’s milled rice exports to the international market are expected to reach 800,000 tons in 2020, an estimated rise of 29 per cent from 620,106 tons last year, a senior agriculture official said; the kingdom had seen a remarkable increase in rice exports in the first five months of this year due to high demand from the international market as a result of the Coivid-19 pandemic.
India’s rice production is likely to surge to a record high as farmers are expanding the area under paddy because of good monsoon rains and after the government raised the price at which it will buy the new-season crop; higher output by the world’s biggest rice exporter could dampen domestic prices and make exports more competitive, compensating for lower supplies from rivals Thailand and Vietnam; it could also force India’s state-run agencies to ramp up purchases from farmers even as inventories are bulging.
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