Global Ag News Headlines May 26
Overnight trade has SRW down roughly 1 cent, HRW down 1; HRS Wheat up 1, Corn is up 1 cent; Soybeans up 5, Soymeal up $0.50, and Soyoil up 45 points.
For the week, SRW Wheat prices were up roughly 8 cents; HRW down 8; HRS up 7; Corn was down 1 cent; Soybeans down 5 cents; Soymeal down $3.00, and; Soyoil up 5 points. Crushing margins were down 2 cents; Oil share unchanged at 31%.
Chinese Ag futures (Sep) settled up 6 yuan, up 6 yuan in Corn, up 4 in Soymeal, up 24 in Soyoil, and up 64 in Palm Oil.
U.S./Canada Weather Forecast
Frequent rain and thunderstorms will occur in the eastern Great Plains, Midwest, Delta and southeastern states through the workweek
Canada’s Prairies have become too wet in the west and a little too dry in portions of the central and east.
Rain failed to bring dryness relief to western Kansas, southeastern Colorado or areas south into the western Texas Panhandle
U.S. spring wheat planting and establishment is advancing well. Some rain would be welcome, but the drier areas may not get much until next week.
South America Weather Forecast
Relief to dryness came to some of Brazil’s Safrinha corn production area during the weekend
Black Sea/Europe region
High pressure ridge over Kazakhstan produced hot temperatures and no rain during the weekend
Temperature extremes in the 90s to 104 Fahrenheit were noted across the nation
Black Sea region precipitation recently has eased most of the concern for that region
Weekend precipitation impacted 75% of Russia’s Southern Region with highly varying rainfall
The player sheet had funds net sellers of 5,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; were net even in Corn; net sold 2,000 Soybeans; net bought 1,000 lots of Soymeal, and; net sold 3,000 Soyoil.
We estimate Managed Money net short 8,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; net short 258,000 Corn; net long 3,000 Soybeans; net short 29,000 lots of Soymeal, and; net even Soyoil.
Preliminary Open Interest saw SRW Wheat futures up roughly 2,600 contracts; HRW Wheat up 170; Corn up 9,200; Soybeans up 1,500 contracts; Soymeal down 1,200 lots, and; Soyoil down 275.
There were no changes in registrations (Soybeans down 153)—Registrations total 11 contracts for SRW Wheat; ZERO Oats; Corn ZERO; Soybeans ZERO; Soyoil 3,495 lots; Soymeal 511; Rice 121; HRW Wheat 17, and; HRS Wheat 488 contracts.
TODAY—EXPORT INSPECTIONS—CROP PROGRESS/CONDITION REPORTS—
Tender Activity—Philippines bought 56,000t optional-origin feed wheat—Russia supplied Syria with 75,000t wheat, ongoing for another 25,000t—Japan seeks 112,000t optional-origin wheat—Syria seeking 50,000t optional-origin soymeal, 50,000t corn—
Speculators were big sellers of Chicago-traded grains and oilseeds last week, as prospects for newly planted U.S. corn and soybean crops looked positive and risks mounted for agricultural exports as U.S.-China tensions escalate; funds have grown especially bearish toward corn just as the U.S. growing season is ramping up, and that has led to short-covering rallies in past years; but corn faces unique challenges this year with U.S. stockpiles set to expand by more than 50% over the next year to 33-year highs, driving futures to the lowest pre-harvest levels since 2006.
- CME LOWERS SOYBEAN FUTURES(S) MAINTENANCE MARGINS BY 9.1% TO $1,500 PER CONTRACT FROM $1,650 FOR JULY 2020
- CME LOWERS CORN FUTURES(C) MAINTENANCE MARGINS BY 10% TO $900 PER CONTRACT FROM $1,000 FOR JULY 2020
- CME LOWERS SOYBEAN MEAL FUTURES(06) MAINTENANCE MARGINS BY 12% TO $1,100 PER CONTRACT FROM $1,250 FOR JULY 2020
- SAYS INITIAL MARGIN RATES ARE 110% OF THESE LEVELS
- SAYS RATES WILL BE EFFECTIVE AFTER THE CLOSE OF BUSINESS ON MAY 26, 2020
- U.S. MAY 1 ALL CATTLE ON FEED 95.0 PCT (TRADE ESTIMATE 95.1 PCT) – USDA
- U.S. APRIL CATTLE PLACEMENTS 78.0 PCT (TRADE ESTIMATE 77.4 PCT) – USDA
- U.S. APRIL CATTLE MARKETED 76.0 PCT (TRADE ESTIMATE 75.1 PCT)
- DEERE AG & TURF UNIT PRESIDENT SAYS PHASE 1 AGREEMENT WITH CHINA REMAINS AN UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME
- DEERE AG & TURF UNIT PRESIDENT SAYS HOME AND LAWN PROJECTS HAVE LIFTED DEMAND FOR TURF AND UTILITY EQUIPMENT DURING LOCKDOWN
- DEERE AG & TURF UNIT PRESIDENT SAYS ALL CHINA FACILITIES ARE CURRENTLY OPEN – CONF CALL
- DEERE AG & TURF UNIT PRESIDENT SAYS SUBSTANTIALLY ALL DEALERS REMAIN OPERATIONAL – CONF CALL
- DEERE SAYS CONTINUE TO SEE STRONG ADOPTION OF CO’S PRECISION AG TECHNOLOGY
- DEERE SAYS THE GOVERNMENT PROGRAMS HAVE PROVIDED A LEVELING EFFECT FOR FARMERS
- DEERE SAYS WILL UNDERPRODUCE MORE THAN EXPECTED IN CONSTRUCTION BUSINESS
- DEERE EXPECTS ROAD BUILDING TO BE DOWN 25% FOR THE FULL-YEAR
- DEERE SAYS INCREMENTAL COVID RELATED COSTS, PREMIUM FREIGHT TO WEIGH ON AG AND TURF MARGINS IN THE BACK HALF OF THE YEAR
- DEERE SAYS BACK HALF AG AND TURF VOLUMES TO BE DOWN MORE THAN FIRST HALF
Alberta crop report – Reuters News
Precipitation across the province has been varied over the last month. In this period, western parts of the Southern and Central Regions as well as western and central parts of the North West Region and southern counties in the Peace Region received at least 40 mm of accumulated precipitation, with up to 80 mm in some areas; however, a large area in the Peace Region, the eastern parts of the North West and most parts of the Southern, Central and North East Regions have seen less than 20 mm of rain
Over the past week, producers across the province benefited from favourable dry weather conditions to advance seeding, with the most progress occurring in the Central Region with 32 per cent, followed by the North East and Southern Regions with 23 and 14 per cent progress, respectively; seeding progress was lowest in the North West and Peace Regions, respectively, with nearly two and four per cent
China’s April soybean imports from top supplier Brazil rise 2.6%
- Soybean arrivals from Brazil rise after earlier delays
- Arrivals from May-July expected to top 9 mln T a month
- China’s April soybean imports from U.S. down 62% on year
China’s soybean imports in April from top supplier Brazil rose 2.6% from a year earlier, customs data showed
China brought in 5.939 million tons of the oilseed from Brazil in April, up from 5.786 million tons last year, according to General Administration of Customs data
April’s imports from Brazil were nearly triple March arrivals of 2.099 million tons
Previously published customs data showed China’s total soybean imports for the month fell 12% to 6.714 million tons from last year
China’s soybean and soymeal inventories fell to historical lows as a result, forcing some crushers to curb production
China will auction 30,000 tons of frozen pork from state reserves on May 27, the China Merchandise Reserve Management Center said; China has sold at least 330,000 tons of pork from reserves so far this year to boost supplies
- BRAZIL SOYBEAN EXPORTS THROUGH THIRD WEEK OF MAY TOTAL 12.2 MILLION TONNES – TRADE DATA
Russian export prices for the new wheat crop, which is due to arrive this summer, rose last week after estimates for the new harvest were downgraded due to dry weather in April; Russian wheat with 12.5% protein loaded from Black Sea ports and for delivery in July was at $202 a tonne free on board (FOB) at the end of last week, up $6 from a week earlier; IKAR pegged the new crop of wheat for delivery in early July at $199 a ton, up $4
Ukrainian farmers have sown 14.8 million hectares of spring crops for the 2020 harvest as of May 22 or 96% of the expected area of 15.5 million hectares, the economy ministry said; the ministry said farmers had completed the sowing of corn seeding 5.2 million hectares, barley – 1.5 million hectares, spring wheat – 184,500 hectares, sunflower – 5.9 million hectares, peas – 282,700 hectares and oats – 186,300 hectares
Recent rains have improved the condition of grain crops in almost all Ukrainian regions and most of them are in a good or satisfactory state, Ukrainian weather forecasters said; forecasters said in a weekly report that only southern and some areas in central Ukraine still suffered from the lack of moisture in soil
Ukraine’s wheat sales have reached 19.925 million tons as of May 22, leaving only 275,000 tons available for export over the rest of the season which runs until June 30, economy ministry data; the ministry said it would not increase the wheat export quota for the current season which is 20.2 million tons
Ukraine will continue to export wheat even though the quota agreed with traders for the 2019/20 season which runs to the end of June has been used up, deputy economy minister
Ukrainian export prices for 2020 wheat harvest have climbed, buoyed by fears over the crop’s condition in the Black Sea region and Europe, the APK-Inform consultancy said; the new crop 12.5% protein wheat bid price rose by as much as $6 per ton in the past week to $197-201 per ton FOB Black Sea with delivery in July-August; feed wheat prices rose by $5-6 to $185-188 per ton
Euronext wheat prices edged higher on Monday as participants assessed mixed conditions for crops in Europe and the Black Sea region; September milling wheat was up 1.00 euro or 0.5% at 189.25 euros a ton, but holding below Thursday’s four-week high of 190.25 euros.
Soft wheat exports from the European Union in the 2019/20 season that started last July had reached 30.74 million tons by May 24, official EU data showed; that was 63% above the volume cleared by May 19 last year
EU 2019/20 barley exports had reached 6.70 million tons, up 64% from the year-earlier period
EU 2019/20 maize imports stood at 18.36 million tons, down 16%
European Union soybean imports in the 2019/20 season that started last July had reached 13.42 million tons by May 24, official EU data showed; that was 1% below the volume cleared by May 19 last year, the data showed.
—EU rapeseed imports in 2019/20 had reached 5.43 million tons, up 41% versus the year-earlier period
—Soymeal imports so far in 2019/20 were at 16.03 million tons, up 2%
—Palm oil imports stood at 5.17 million tons, down 10%
The spat between China and Australia has big consequences for the money in our pockets; China has put a tariff of just over 80 per cent on Australian exports of barley. It’s the same as taxing Australian exports of the grain. The result is that it nearly doubles in price for Chinese buyers – so much so that Chinese buyers will look elsewhere; China says that Australia unfairly dumps barley on Chinese markets, dumping it at a price below a fair market price; Australia denies that strongly; Either way, the tariff will hurt Australian farmers because they sell barley worth between $1.5 billion and $2 billion to China every year.
Risk Warning: Investments in Equities, Contracts for Difference (CFDs) in any instrument, Futures, Options, Derivatives and Foreign Exchange can fluctuate in value. Investors should therefore be aware that they may not realise the initial amount invested and may incur additional liabilities. These investments may be subject to above average financial risk of loss. Investors should consider their financial circumstances, investment experience and if it is appropriate to invest. If necessary, seek independent financial advice.
ADM Investor Services International Limited, registered in England No. 2547805, is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 148474] and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Registered office: 3rd Floor, The Minster Building, 21 Mincing Lane, London EC3R 7AG.
A subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company.
© 2021 ADM Investor Services International Limited.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM. The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.