Global Ag News
TODAY—LAST TRADING DAY AUG FUTURES—COMMITMENT OF TRADERS
Overnight trade has SRW down roughly 2 cents, HRW down 2; HRS Wheat unchanged, Corn is down 1 cent; Soybeans down 3, Soymeal down $0.50, and Soyoil down 15 points.
For the week, SRW Wheat prices are up roughly 2 cents; HRW up 7; HRS up 1; Corn is up 17 cents; Soybeans up 29; Soymeal up $12.00, and; Soyoil up 30 points. Crushing margins are down 1 cent at $1.00; Oil share unchanged at 34%.
Chinese Ag futures (January) settled up 22 yuan in soybeans, up 45 in Corn, up 33 in Soymeal, up 32 in Soyoil, and up 30 in Palm Oil.
Malaysian palm oil prices were up 8 ringgit at 2,724 (basis October) at midsession.
The 6 to 10 day forecast for the Midwest is mixed with both models showing mainly dry weather but, fronts that move through, the GFS has a bit more moisture than the European model over the period; Temps are seen average to a bit below average over the next 10 days.
The 11 to 16 day forecast for the Midwest sees some ridging early in the period bringing above average temps and limited rainfall before flattening out to allow for rains and cooler temps.
The player sheet had funds net buyers of 5,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; net bought 47,000 Corn; bought 13,000 Soybeans; net bought 7,000 lots of Soymeal, and; net sold 4,000 Soyoil.
We estimate Managed Money net short 8,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; short 110,000 Corn; net long 60,000 Soybeans; net short 15,000 lots of Soymeal, and; long 48,000 Soyoil.
Preliminary Open Interest saw SRW Wheat futures up roughly 12,800 contracts; HRW Wheat up 1,000; Corn down 30,400; Soybeans down 2,200 contracts; Soymeal up 2,800 lots, and; Soyoil up 1,300.
Deliveries were 109 Soymeal; 241 Soyoil, and 36 Soybeans.
There were no changes in registrations—Registrations total 95 contracts for SRW Wheat; ZERO Oats; Corn ZERO; Soybeans 220; Soyoil 2,558 lots; Soymeal 511; Rice ZERO; HRW Wheat 47, and; HRS 1,387.
Tender Activity—Egypt bought 415,000t Russian wheat—Jordan seeks 120,000t optional-origin wheat—Pakistan bought 60,000t Black Sea wheat—Iran bought 130,000t S. American soymeal—
For the week ended August 8th, U.S. All Wheat sales are running 8% ahead of a year ago, shipments up 4% with the USDA forecasting a 1% increase on the year
For the week ended August 8th, U.S. Corn sales are running 12% behind a year ago, shipments 15% behind with the USDA forecasting a 20% decline.
For the week ended August 8th, U.S. Soybean sales are running 2% behind a year ago, shipments down 4% with the USDA forecasting a 6% decline on the year
U.S. soybean crushings likely rose to a four-month high in July, according to analysts polled ahead of a monthly National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) report due on Monday.
China will be able to maintain steady economic growth this year although the tensions between China and the United States will negatively impact the two countries and the world, the China’s National Bureau of Statistics spokesman said; China’s investment is steadily recovering on policy support, but employment pressure still exists
BRF SA, Brazil’s largest chicken producer, said on Thursday that expenses incurred to fend off the pandemic will likely fall over the second half of 2020, after it spent millions to adapt factories and control outbreaks of coronavirus; costs and expenses related to COVID-19 in Brazil were 117 million reais ($21.80 million) last quarter
A prolonged drought in some of Argentina’s key agricultural areas has punished this season’s wheat crop, the Buenos Aires Grains Exchange said, adding that more than 99% of expected planting area for the 2020/21 crop had been sown; the exchange kept its total planting area forecast steady at 6.5 million hectares; the drought is threatening wheat crop development and yields or earlier planted areas in the central and northern farm belt,” the exchange said
On Wednesday, the Rosario grains exchange said in its monthly crop report that dryness in northern and western wheat growing areas of Argentina had slightly reduced planting area; the Rosario exchange nonetheless kept its 2020/21 wheat harvest estimate steady at 18 to 19 million tons
Consultancy Strategie Grains on Thursday again cut its forecast for this year’s soft wheat harvest in the European Union and Britain, as poor crops in France and southeast Europe offset increased estimates for Poland and the Baltic countries; in its monthly cereal report, the French firm lowered its 2020 soft wheat output forecast for the EU plus Britain to 128.0 million tons, 13% below an estimated 2019 crop of 147.2 million.
The condition of French maize deteriorated sharply last week, farm office FranceAgriMer said on Friday, suggesting a heatwave added to stress on crops after a very dry July; the office estimated in a weekly cereal report that 65% of grain maize was in good or excellent condition by Aug. 10, down from 74% the previous week; that was still above a year-earlier rating of 60%; but this year’s score has now dropped from 83% a month ago and traders are reducing estimates for the autumn harvest.
Euronext spot wheat edged higher on Thursday as spillover support from a rally in Chicago grain futures helped Paris prices consolidate above a six-week low struck earlier this week; front-month September milling wheat settled 0.75 euro, or 0.4%, higher at 178.25 euros ($210.64) a ton, edging away from Monday’s six-week low of 176.75 euros.
India’s palm oil imports in July rose 1.4% from a year ago to 824,078 tons, the highest level in 10 months, as a gradual easing of lockdowns increased demand for the tropical oil from hotels and restaurants, a leading trade body said; the country’s soyoil imports in July surged 52% from a year ago to 484,525 tons, while sunflower oil imports rose 4% to 208,747 tons.
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