Written Commentary
GOLD / SILVER
The gold market did forge a fresh 3 day high early this morning but relinquished those gains in the face of a strong dollar and a partial risk off global equity market vibe. Apparently, news that the Perth Mint November gold sales almost doubled and noted early gains in crude oil are of little benefit to the bull camp in gold early today. It should also be noted that Perth Mint sales of silver increased in November to 1.53 million ounces from only 1.35 million ounces in October. The gold and silver trade is at least partially off balance because of the Goldman Sachs forecast predicting the US Federal Reserve will be forced to “double” its tapering rate in the months and quarters ahead.
PLATINUM
With the March palladium contract respecting/rejecting the $1,700 level on five occasions last week, that level appears to offer some measure of technical value. With a downside breakout and the lowest trade since September 21st in January platinum, the latest positioning report probably overstates the size of the net spec and fund long.
COPPER
Like many physical commodity markets, the copper market continues to fail to regain its 200-day moving average and has spent a significant amount of trading time below that level since November 26th. The market might be undermined because of a forecast overnight on Bloomberg projecting that global mined supply of copper will rise in each of the next 2 years and because of overnight reports that Chinese regional copper supply was building. However, the latest Shanghai copper warehouse stocks decline, produced the lowest stock levels since May 2009 leaving supply side fundamentals supportive.
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