Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed. SK is up 7 cents and near 11.58. SMK is near 334.9. BOK is near 45.19. CK is up 2 cents and near 4.27. WK is down 3 cents and near 5.54. KWK is down 2 cents and near 5.62. MWK is unch and near 6.43. US stocks are lower. US Dollar is lower. Crude is lower. Coffee, cocoa and sugar are higher. Super Tuesday. State of Union. USDA Friday.
SK is near 11.58. Most of Brazil and Argentina weather will be close to normal for now. USDA March supply and demand report this week and tends to make South America crop adjustments if necessary. Some could see USDA drop Brazil crop 5 mmt to 151. Most est US 2023/24 soybean carryout near 345 vs USDA 315. Trade will also focus on the first US planting intentions March 28. Early est of US 2024/25 carrryout is 430. Higher supply offsets higher crush. Managed funds continue to be large net shorts in soybean futures. SK resistance is near 11.71.
CK is near 4.27. Key CK resistance remains near 4.34. China seeing record feedgrain import pace despite record crop. Most of Brazil and Argentina weather will be close to normal for now. Brazil corn futures are lower on talk of higher supply due to higher acres. Most est US 2023/24 corn carryout near 2.247 vs USDA 2,172 due to lower exports. Early est of US 2024/25 at 2,875 due to higher supply. Trade will also focus on the first US planting intentions March 28. Managed funds continue to be large net shorts in corn futures.
Wheat futures are lower. Ukraine plus Russia February wheat exports est at a record 6.50 mmt. Russia and EU wheat prices continue to slide lower. Early est of US 2024/25 wheat carryout is near at 689. Higher crop offset by higher export? Below normal US, EU and Black Sea weather is needed to push futures higher. Managed funds continue to be large net shorts in wheat futures. Matif wheat futures made new lows.
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