Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed. SN is up 9 cents and near 13.16. SMN is near 409.9. BON is near 47.33. CN is up 5 cents and near 5.60. WN is down 4 cents and near 6.00. KWN is down 13 cents and near 8.10. MWN is down 9 cents and near 7.94. US stocks are unch. US Dollar is lower. Crude is near $72. Trade will be watching for any news on US debt ceiling talks. Default would be negative US Dollar, US stocks and most commodities. Higher global interest rates has slowed demand for commodities.
SN is higher. There may be some concern about US summer weather. Funds have reduced net long to only 21,000 contracts. SMN has dropped from 442 to 408 on concern for lower protein demand. This despite lower Argentina supplies. Brazil is still offering soybean export at lower than US prices. Weekly US soybean export inspections and new sales were below pace to reach USDA goal. Key will be summer US weather. New crop US farmer selling is near record low.
CN is higher. CN had a wild day on Friday. On Friday CN rallied from 5.51 to 5.71 on some talk of drier US summer weather but ended at 5.54 on talk of Brazil corn imports into the US. US ethanol margins are positive. Managed funds are net short 144,000 contracts with good US spring weather but before US summer weather. There is little weather risk at 5.50 CN and 5.00 CZ. New crop US farmer selling is near record low.
Wheat futures are lower. WN has gone from 6.64 to 5.96 on big Russia and EU crop. KWN dopped from 9.18 to 8.07 on lower Russia prices. Much of the Ukraine war risk has been taken out of prices. Drop in KWN is despite KS crop lowest since 1963. MWN dropped from 8.88 to 7.93 following Chicago and KC and talk US 2023 HRS will get planted despite delays. There is now little 2023 weather premium in wheat futures. Trade will be watching summer weather in US, Canada, Australia and Russia spring wheat area.
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