Written Commentary
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are higher. SK is up 6 cents and near 15.24. SMK is near 490.4. BOK is near 59.40. CK is up 3 cents and near 6.28. WK is up 1 cent and near 6.88. KWK is up 2 cents and near 8.02. MWK is up 8 cents and near 8.46.
Soybean market is struggling to find new direction. USDA dropped Argentina soybean crop a record 8 mmt to 33 and raised imports to a record 8 mmt. USDA dropped Argentina crush 1.5 mmt to 35.5 and for first time ever Argentina will crush more soybeans than they produce. Still, USDA reduced World soymeal exports only 1.2 mmt. Last night Rosario Exchange dropped their crop est to 27 mmt. USDA left China soybean imports at 96 mmt but dropped their crush 2 mmt. Given drop in Argentina supply SK may be undervalued.
Corn futures dropped after USDA dropped US corn export 75 mil bu. USDA new corn export estimate is down 29 pct from ly vs current pace down 39 pct. USDA also dropped Argentina crop a record 7 mmt to 40.0. Last night Rosario Exchange dropped their crop est to 35 mmt. Part of the drop in the Argentina crop was offset by higher India and Paraguay. USDA raised Ukraine exports and dropped end stocks to only 2.5 mmt. Private est of Ukraine 2023 crop could be near 16 mmt vs USDA 27. Talks on extending Ukraine corridor deal continues in Geneva but Russia demands have not yet been met.
Wheat futures dopped after USDA raised World wheat stocks due to higher Kazakhstan? At the same time World non Black Sea exporter stocks to use ratio are record low. USDA kept Russia crop at 96 mmt vs most est near 103. USDA est EU and Russia end stocks near 25 mmt vs private est of 45. USDA left US wheat S/D unch. It is still dry in US south plains, Canada and Australia crop could drop in an El Nino year. Wheat futures remain oversold.
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