Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are higher. US stocks and USD are lower. Crude is lower. Trade not sure about Ukraine/Russia ceasefire. Parts of E KS, MO,AR and TN could see 4.00-10.00 inches of rain over next 2 weeks. Central Midwest could see 2.00-4.00 inches. It will be dry across NE,SD and far W IA.
SOYBEANS
SN is near 10.52. Dalian soybean and soymeal were lower. Increase in soybean imports weighs on soymeal values. Palmoil and soyoil were higher. SX historical trend is higher into mid May then lower into July 1. One group dropped US 2024/25 soybean crush 20 mil vu which raised carryout to 374. They reduced 2025/26 crush 75 mil bu vs USDA but added 200 mil bu to their export guess. This leaves a carryout at 500 mil bu vs USDA 295. 66 pct of US soybean crop is planted vs 53 average. IL 67 VS 64. IA 84 vs 71. AR 76 vs 67. One crop watcher est SA soybean crops at 235.8 mmt vs USDA 235.5 and 220.7 ly. US soybean exports are at 1,621 mil bu vs 1,459 ly. USDA goal is 1,850 mil bu vs 1,695 ly.
CORN
CN is near 4.51. Dalian corn was lower. CZ historical trend is higher into mid June then lower after July 1. Most agree with USDA 2024/25 Supply and Demand but some feel US 2025/26 exports are 275 mil bu below USDA which increase carryout closer to 2,025. 78 pct of US corn crop is planted vs 73 average. IL 74 VS 77. IA 91 vs 85. OH 34 vs 48. Plantings could slow due to rain. There is 4 mil acres in IL, KY, MO and TN yet to be planted. There is also 1.3 mil acres yet to be planted in ND. One crop watcher est SA corn crops at 186.5 mmt vs USDA 183.3 and 175.7 ly. US corn exports are at 1,793 mil bu vs 1,387 ly. USDA goal is 2,600 mil bu vs 2,292 ly.
WHEAT
WN is near 5.38. Close above 5.49 suggest a change in momentum. Wheat futures up due to lower USD, C US rains and increase wheat feeding. 3.00-5.00 inch rains are forecast for MO and S IL over next 7 days. USDA rated US WW crop 52 pct G/E down 2 from last week. Drop was in CO and TX. 82 pct of US spring wheat is planted vs 65 ave. US wheat exports are at 760 mil bu vs 657 ly. USDA goal is 820 mil bu vs 707 ly.
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