Written Commentary
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are mostly lower. SX is down 4 cents near 13.80. SMZ is near 408.6. BOZ is near 67.08. CZ is down 4 cents and near 6.78. WZ is down 8 cents and near 8.52. KWZ is down 6 cents and near 9.46. MWZ is down 1 cent and near 9.54.
US Midwest is dry. SE US south plains could see rains but 2nd week is dry again. E Australia is too wet. Argentina is dry but rains are forecast. Ukraine and Russia are too wet.
Soybean futures are lower on talk of lower demand. 63 pct of US soybean crop is harvested. IL 57, IA 74, SD 82, NE 78, OH 51 and AR 62. There is talk that China needs more imported soybean and plan to increase storage capacity. US Miss river water levels are in decline. This backs up soybeans in the country and favors movement to crushers. Soyoil futures up on lower NOPA soyoil stocks. Brazil soybean plantings are 20 pct. US soybean export window is slowly closing.
Corn futures are lower on concern about US exports. US corn exports are down 21 pct with export commit down 50 pct from ly. Corn futures are also lower due to talk Russia may extend Ukraine export corridor. The only issue is that exports may not be allowed to EU. US is considering sanctions against 5 Turkish grain companies due to them importing stolen Crimea corn. US corn harvest is 45 pct and behind normal. Farmers are not selling. Argentina corn plantings are lowest in 6 years due to drought. Rain is in the forecast.
Wheat futures are trending lower. Still most of US HRW states soil moistures are 74-96 pct short to very short. Showers are forecast for SE plains but second week is dry. Central and north US HRW farmers are planting in dust. US wheat exports are down 7 pct vs last year. Russia, Germany and French wheat export prices are lower. WZ is near key support at 8.49.
US stocks are higher. Crude is lower. US Dollar is higher. Gold, silver, copper, cocoa and sugar are lower. Managed funds focus is now to buy equities and sell commodities. Short commodities is due to coming US recession with many World economies also slowing down due to inflation. US announced they will sell oil from SPR. Some had thought they were going to buy oil to replenish reserves.
View more futures market commentary here
Risk Warning: Investments in Equities, Contracts for Difference (CFDs) in any instrument, Futures, Options, Derivatives and Foreign Exchange can fluctuate in value. Investors should therefore be aware that they may not realise the initial amount invested and may incur additional liabilities. These investments may be subject to above average financial risk of loss. Investors should consider their financial circumstances, investment experience and if it is appropriate to invest. If necessary, seek independent financial advice.
ADM Investor Services International Limited, registered in England No. 2547805, is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 148474] and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Registered office: 3rd Floor, The Minster Building, 21 Mincing Lane, London EC3R 7AG.
A subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company.
© 2021 ADM Investor Services International Limited.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM. The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.
