Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are quietly higher. SK is unch. CK is up. WK is up. KWK is unch. MWK is up. Stocks are higher. US Dollar is mixed Crude is lower. Gold is mixed. US considering sanctions against China steel and aluminum. Fed Chairman suggesting delays in rate cuts.
SK is back near key support. SK-SN spread continues to widen. Dalian soybean, soymeal, soyoil and palmoil prices were lower. BOK is near contract lows. Higher US Dollar may be hurting US soybean exports vs South America. Brazil soybean crush is seasonally moving higher. Many increased their estimate of Brazil crop to 150 mmt vs 145 previous and USDA 155. Argentina rains have raised concern about crop size and export logistics. This week could be drier but rains are forecasted for weekend. Higher US soyoil stocks, seasonal increased in palmoil production and increase Argentina crush offers resistance to World vegoil and protein prices.
CK is near 4.32. Sideways market continues. CK-CN spread narrowed. Cash remains firm. US weather uncertainty could last through US July pollination time. For now, US west Midwest planting weather looks good. Dalian corn futures were lower. China corn import demand is lower. This and Middle east tension may be lowering global corn export demand. There remains questions over final Brazil corn crop (lower?) and lower Argentina crop due to disease. Crude is steady waiting for next headline from Middle East. Drop in tension could weigh on energy prices as market assess the damage to demand due to higher prices.
WK is near 5.54. Higher US Dollar is not helping US export demand. Russia nationalizing Agriculture limits price data but Russia is still cheaper origin. Egypt bought 2 Ukraine wheat cargoes. Wheat prices waiting for new weather news.
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