Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are mostly lower. SK is down. CK is down. WK is unch. KWK is unch. MWK is down. Stocks are higher. US Dollar is mixed. Crude and gold are lower on dismissed Middle East tension. Russia attacked Ukraine Odesa port. Ukraine attacked Russia refinery. US House passed $93 billion aid package to Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan.
SK is near 11.45. SK found resistance near 11.50. Global soybean crush is on the increase. This and seasonal increase in palmoil production raises questions where market will find demand for increase in global product supply. Some est US 2022/23 soybean carryout at 365 mil bu vs USDA 340. They now est US 2024/25 carryout near 500. This due to record crop, Machines added to soybean futures short last week,
CK is near 4.31. CK remains in a 4.20-4.50 range. US domestic cash remains firm. Bulls are waiting for some kind of weather rally. Brazil farmer selling and talk of lower China demand offers resistance. Lower Argentina corn crop and fact EPA announced temporary expanding period US could use E-15 outside summertime offers support.. Some est US 2022/23 corn carryout at 2,060 mil bu vs USDA 2,122. This due to higher domestic demand. They now est US 2024/25 corn near 2,245. This due to higher carryin. Machines are not yet willing to cover wheat futures shorts
WK is near 5.50. WK remains between 5.25-5.75. Wheat futures rallied on Friday due to concern about dryness across US south plains HRW crop area and dryness in S Russia. Some feel Russia crop below 86 mmt could rally futures closer to 6.00. Higher US 2024/25 wheat carryout though offers resistance. Machines are not yet willing to cover wheat futures shorts.
Interested in more futures markets? Explore our Market Dashboards here.
Risk Warning: Investments in Equities, Contracts for Difference (CFDs) in any instrument, Futures, Options, Derivatives and Foreign Exchange can fluctuate in value. Investors should therefore be aware that they may not realise the initial amount invested and may incur additional liabilities. These investments may be subject to above average financial risk of loss. Investors should consider their financial circumstances, investment experience and if it is appropriate to invest. If necessary, seek independent financial advice.
ADM Investor Services International Limited, registered in England No. 2547805, is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 148474] and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Registered office: 3rd Floor, The Minster Building, 21 Mincing Lane, London EC3R 7AG.
A subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company.
© 2021 ADM Investor Services International Limited.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM. The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.
