Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
US government in 43rd day of shutdown but Senate passed a budget resolution to end the shutdown. House votes on a bill today. Shutdown could end as soon as later today. Grains are mixed. US stocks are higher. USD is higher. Crude is lower. Gold is higher. A lot of government reports could hit markets soon. Grain market starving for export sales and CFTC fund report.
The storyline in corn, soybeans, and wheat may not be the bearishness of balance sheets, but the overall positive risk on assets. Looking at commodities and risk have come back into favor since August. The commodity index is looking to bust over levels not seen since June.
SOYBEANS
SF is near 11.32. SX deliveries were 29. LDC issued 29. ADM stopped 6. Bunge stopped 23. This week, attention will be on Fridays USDA report. Some feel lower US crop could be matched by lower exports unless USDA is forced to show increase China demand. Trade est US soybean crop at 4.266 mil bu vs USDA Sep 4,301. Trade also est US 2025/26 soybean carryout near 304 mil bu vs USDA Sep 300. Range of est is 187-494. Will be interesting how both CFTC catches up on weekly fund activity and NASS on crop ratings with harvest done.
CORN
CH is near 4.47. Corn futures following soybeans. Will be interesting how both CFTC catches up on weekly fund activity and NASS on crop ratings with harvest done. Trade est US corn crop at 16.557 mil bu vs USDA Sep 16,814. Trade also estimates US 2025/26 corn carryout near 2,136 mil bu vs USDA Sep estimate od 2,110. Range of est is 1,944-2,470.
WHEAT
WH is near 5.48. KWH is near 5.34. MWH is near 5.82. USDA should increase Canada, Argentina, Australia and Russia crops on Friday. Trade est US 2025/26 wheat carryout at 867 mil bu vs USDA Sep estimate of 844. World wheat stocks 266.1 mmt vs USDA Sep est of 264.0.
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