Written Commentary
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed. SX is up 7 cents and near 13.27. SMZ is near 354.3. BOZ is near 60.58. CZ is up 1 cent and near 5.52. WZ is up 1 cent and near 7.44. KWZ is unch and near 7.28. MWZ is up 5 cents and near 9.09.
US stocks are lower. US Dollar Is higher. Crude is mixed. US Fed tapering talk negative stocks. Covid spread could slow commodity demand. Inflation worries.
Next week, US Midwest will turn cooler/wetter. W Russia dry. Brazil dry. Argentina dry. NW EU wet. Russia spring crop outlook lower. Talk of restricted exports. N Hemisphere wheat soils dry for planting. Dalian soybean futures, corn, soymeal, palmoil and soyoil lower. China starting to buy US soybeans.
Since June USDA, Brazil and US corn production down 32.5 mmt, futures down 50 cents since report. Since August report wheat futures back to pre report prices despite 17 mmt drop in World crop. Argentina wheat crop rated 37 pct G/E vs 46 last week. Matif Sep higher vs Dec. Sep OI high.
Pro Farmer IA corn yield at 191 vs 178 ly and USDA 193. IA soybean pod count 1,217 vs 1,146 ly. Pro Farmer MN corn yield 177 vs 195 ly and USDA 166. MN soybean pod count 1,027 vs 1,085 ly.
Weekly US corn export sales 8 mil bu. Total commit 2,768 vs 1,741 ly. New crop sales 20 mil bu. Weekly US soybean export sales 2 mil bu. Total commit 2,193 vs 1,737 ly. New crop sales 78 mil bu. Weekly US wheat export sales 11 mil bu. Total commit 331 va 404. US prices high vs other exporters.
US July cattle of feed est at 98 pct, placements 93, marketing 96 vs last year.
Argentina 2022 soybean planted acres could be near 15 year low. Corn acres record high. SX support 13.08, SMZ 353, BOZ 59.37, CZ 5.50, WZ 7.30. Resistance 13.50, 360, 61.40, 5.56, 7.51.
On Thursday, Managed funds were net sellers of 7,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; 13,000 corn, 17,000 soybeans; 7,000 soyoil and 4,000 soymeal. We estimate Managed Money net long 22,000 SRW Wheat; long 255,000 Corn; net long 91,000 Soybeans; net long 24,000 lots of Soymeal, and; long 56,000 lots of soyoil.
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