Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are mostly steady. SH is unch and near 13.23. SMH is near 392.5. BOH is near 50.68. CH is unch and near 4.73 in only a 1 cent range. WH is down 1 cent and near 6.21. KWH is down 2 cents and near 6.39. MWH is down 3 cents and near 7.25. Stocks are lower. US Dollar is higher. Crude is higher on concerns about Red Sea travel.
CH is near 4.73. Trade still worried about higher US Dec 1 stocks and USDA increase US 2023 corn crop in Jan. Trade awaiting Brazil rain amounts. Low water in Panama canal and increase Red Sea drone attacks has vessels rerouting. All this is increasing World freight rates which offers resistance to corn futures. Dalian corn futures continue sharply lower. China still not buying US corn despite talk government wants to add to stocks. Drop in domestic corn prices could be result of record crop and record Brazil imports.
SH remains near midpoint of 13.00-13.50 range. SMH is below 400. Drop in soymeal values are pushing crush margins lower. BOH moved above 50 cents. SF-SH spread narrowing on increase export sales. USDA announced 132 mt US soybeans to unknown and total of 1,113 mt since Dec 14. Trade awaiting Brazil rain amount. Dalian soybean, soymeal, palmoil and soyoil futures were lower.
Push pull wheat futures trade continues with overnight futures lower. HRW/SRW spread is now +18 vs +180 in May. US south plains rains are forecasted for this week. Low water in Panama canal and increase Red Sea drone attacks has vessels rerouting. Which is increasing World freight rates. Increase World wheat buying interesting read but origin is mostly cheaper Russian. Matif wheat futures lower on increasing supply. Australia crop now est at 28 mmt vs USDA 25.5. Demand for Canada wheat export on rise.
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