Written Commentary
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are quietly mixed. Last Friday in Jan? SH is up 2 cents and near 15.26. SMH is near 478.5. BOH is near 61.26. CH is up 2 cent and near 6.84. WH is unch and near 7.53. KWH is down 2 cents and near 8.62. MWH is down 4 cents and near 9.14. US stocks are lower. US Dollar is lower. Crude is higher. Gold, silver, cocoa and cotton are lower. Copper, coffee and sugar are higher.
Argentina and S Brazil is seeing more rains. Argentina raised their crop rating to 7 pct G/E vs 4 last week but is still below 36 ly. Argentina crop was left at 41.0 mmt vs USDA 45.5. Malaysian palmoil, Matif rapeseed and Canada canola were higher but still down on the week. US soybean export commit is near 1,710 mil bu or up 5 pct vs ly. Unshipped open sales are record high with Brazil export prices lower than US. China bought 106 mt US soybean but for 2023/24. This is last day of China holiday with signs China economy may be growing.
CH held trend line support from July low and recent Jan low and bounced to near 6.83 and has trade above the long term trend line of resistance. US farmers continue to add to old crop cash sales. US export commit is near 945 mil bu and down 45 pct vs last year. China may be asking for Ukraine export prices and new crop Brazil. Argentina raised their crop rating from 5 pct G/E to 12 but is still below 31 ly. Their crop was left at 44.5 mmt vs USDA 52.0. Matif corn traded higher after Ukraine crop was estimated at only 18.0 mmt and could drop to 12.0 . Assuming 5-6 mmt domestic use this leaves only 6-7 mmt for export vs 20.0 ly and 27.0 in 2022. This increases importance of Brazil crop for World buyers.
US HRW crop areas remain dry. Next weeks cold temps are not as cold as feared a few days ago. Rains continue in N Africa and Middle East. US wheat export commit is 588 mil bu and down 7 pct vs ly. USDA continues to support their Russia crop number of 91.0 mmt vs private estimates of 104.0 but admitted that their Russian staff are not allowed to travel and access the crop. Russian wheat stocks are estimated to be up 50 pct from ly. Ukraine crop is estimated near 16.0 mmt vs USDA 21.0 with exports 8-10 mmt vs USDA 13.0. Russian missile strikes in Ukraine following announcement of US and Germany tanks to Ukraine could suggest escalation of the war. WH has rallied from 7.12 to 7.58.
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