Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
March Madness continues. Grains are slightly lower. US stocks are lower. US Dollar is higher. Crude is unch near $67.69. USDA March 31 stocks and acreage report and April 2 when new tariff reciprocal will be announced will be key to price volatility.
SOYBEANS
SK is near 10.12. SK support is 10.00. 10.25 is resistance. Dalian soybean, soymeal and soyoil were lower. S Brazil is dry. Argentina is dry but rain next week. USDA acreage and March 1 stocks report next. Trade could see US 2025 acres near 83.0 vs 87.0 ly. Stocks 1,880 mil bu vs 1,845 ly. US weekly soybean export sales were 352 mt. China bought 269 mt. Total commit is near 45.4 mmt vs 40 .0 ly. USDA goal is 49.6 mmt vs 46.1 ly. Trade War, tariffs and global weather adds to trade uncertainty. US and China will talk Monday on US increase tax on China vessels entering US ports. One group est US 2025 soybean crop at 4,370 mil bu vs 4,366 ly. Higher OH and MN offset lower IL, IA and ND.
CORN
CK is near 4.68. 4.55 is key support. 4.70 is resistance. Dalian corn futures were higher. S Brazil remains dry. US NW Midwest is dry. Trade looking for lower 2025 corn prices if US farmers plant 94.0 mil corn acres vs 90.6 last year and summer weather is normal. Trade could see US March 1 stocks near 8,200 mil bu vs 8,352 ly. Weekly US corn export sales were 1,500 mt. Total commit is near 52.0 mmt vs 41.6 ly. USDA goal is 62.2 mmt vs 58.2 ly. Combined higher ethanol production and export demand supported CK. One group est US 2025 corn crop at 15,735 mil bu vs 14,866 ly due to higher NE and MN.
WHEAT
WK is near 5.58. KWK is near 5.87. MWK is near 6.05. Wheat US 2025 all wheat acres could be near 46.6 vs 46.0 ly. March 1 stocks 1,240 mil bu vs 1,089 ly. Weekly US wheat export sales were -248 mt. Last weeks sales to Panama were cancelled. Total commit is near 20.8 mmt vs 18.3 ly. USDA goal is 22.7 mmt vs 19.2 ly. New crop was 491 mt. One group est US 2025 winter wheat crop at 1,330 mil bu vs 1,348 ly due to lower OK. They also estimate the spring wheat crop at 507 mil bu vs 542 ly due to lower ND.
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