Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are slightly lower. 2023 is almost over. SH is down 1 cent and near 13.10. SMH is near 388.4. BOH is near 48.07. CH is down 1 cent and near 4.73. WH is down 1 cent and near 6.30. KWH is unch and near 6.43. MWH is up 1 cent and near 7.26. S&P 500 is higher. Crude is higher. US Dollar is higher. Gold is lower. Meats are lower.
CH is near 4.73. 2023 nearby corn futures range was 4.47-6.72. Most doubt corn will see that wide of a range in 2024 if World crop supplies increase vs demand. Dry Brazil is expected to get needed rains. Argentina 2024 corn crop is est at 55 mmt vs 34 ly. Brazil crop could drop to 117 mmt vs 134 ly. SA unch vs ly? Ukraine vessel exports are on the increase. 2024 US corn stocks will increase. China imports or lack of will be key with acres now approved to plant GMO seed. US 2023 Dollar range 100.8-107 and near lows. Crude range 62-95. Gold 1842-2152. Stocks range was 31,400-37,700 and near highs. Cattle 2023 range 162-187 and near lows. Hogs range 68-104.95 and near lows.
SH is near 13.10. 2023 nearby soybean futures range was 12.50-16.16, soymeal 360-479 and soyoil 44.53-72.81. Most doubt futures will see that wide of a range in 2024 if World crop supplies increase vs demand. Global crush is forecasted to increase which could be negative soymeal. Biodiesel demand should increase but what will it be feed stock? Trade is worried that China may be done buying US soybeans for now. There is also talk China may be diversifying away from soymeal use. Dalian soymeal, palmoil and soyoil prices were lower overnight. Argentina 2024 soybean crop is est at 48 mmt vs 25 ly and Brazil 155 vs 161. Key is final Brazil crop with early yields only 22-27 bpa. Most est increase Russia and Ukraine oilseed production and crush.
WH has been in a 6.00-6.50 range since September. 2023 nearby Chicago futures range was 5.27-7.77. Most doubt futures will see that wide of a range in 2024 if World crop supplies increase vs demand. US is mostly warm and dry while Black Sea supply could grow. Ukraine is seeing increase in vessel movement. Australia and Argentina supplies are down but will be offering exports Q1. Destination markets hope lower Dollar and lower rates will increase buying power. China wheat import demand will also be watched.
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