Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are higher. Month end, quarter end and end of first 6 months of 2023. SN is near 15.15. SU is up 21 cents and near 13.00. SX is near 12.85. SMU is near 391.8. BOU is near 57.42. CN is near 5.86. CU is up 7 cents and near 5.30. CZ is near 5.35. WU is Up 8 cents and near 6.75.. KWU is up 12 cents and near 8.12. MWU is up 13 cents and near 8.38. US stocks are higher. US dollar is higher. Crude is higher. Gold is lower. Coffee, cocoa, sugar and cotton are higher.
There were no corn, soybean and soymeal deliveries. There were 122 soyoil and 371 Chicago wheat.
Trade adding supply worries after heavy Derecho winds flattened crops in N MO, C IL and EC IN. 2020 Derecho winds added 2.60 up to 8.38 SX. US soybean export commit is near 1,923 mil bu, down 13 pct vs ly and vs USDA est of a drop of 7 pct. March US biodiesel and renewable diesel production was record high. Trade is looking for US June 1 soybean stocks at 812 vs 968 ly. Lower number could push SN higher. US 2023 acres are estimated near 87.6 vs USDA March 87.5 and 87.5 ly. Argentina harvest is down with crop est at 21 mmt vs USDA 25.
Trade adding supply worries after heavy Derecho winds flattened crops in N MO, C IL and EC IN. 2020 Derecho winds added 1.00 up to 3.30 CZ. It was later in August. US corn export commit is near 1,527 mil bu, down 36 pct vs ly. China bought Brazil corn vs Brazil farmer selling. Trade is looking for US June 1 corn stocks at 4,255 vs 4,349 ly. Lower number could push CN higher. US 2023 acres are estimated near 91.8 vs USDA March 92.0 and 88.6 ly. After Friday USDA numbers, trade will begin to speculate on if and how much USDA WOB will drop US corn crop yield on July 12.
US wheat export commit is down 27 pct vs ly. IGC raised World wheat crop 3 mmt due to higher Ukraine crop. MWU up on dryness in Canada prairies. Australia continues to get rain. Argentina is dry. Rains are slowing US HRW harvest. Trade is looking for US June 1 wheat stocks at 611 vs 698 ly. US 2023 acres are estimated near 49.6 vs USDA March 49.8 and 45.7 ly. Trade will be looking at NASS est of US 2023 HRS acres.
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