Written Commentary
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are higher. SX is up 8 cents and near 13.00. SMZ is near 342.5. BOZ is near 59.68. CZ is up 1 cent and near 5.25. WZ is up 3 cents and near 7.3. KWZ is up 4 cents and near 7.27. MWZ is up 1 cent and near 9.14.
US stocks are marginally higher. US Dollar is higher. Crude is lower. Gold is lower. Progress has been made at the US gulf capacity but more is needed to get back to normal.
Dalian corn, soybean, soymeal, palmoil, soyoil futures are higher. Malaysian palmoil prod lowered. China August soybean imports 9.45 mmt. YTD imports 93 mmt. Need only 4 mmt to reach USDA 97. China buying pork for reserves to support domestic prices. Could limit pork imports.
Brazil corn exports 18 mmt vs USDA 23. Farmers planting corn in dry soils. Forecast dry.
Australia wheat crop increased 5 mmt to 32. Russia spring wheat yields lower. WW planting dry . 2 week Midwest weather forecast should speed up maturation and harvest. Top in yields.
Weekly US export inspections est to be low due to gulf shutdown. Weekly crop ratings unchanged.
Average trade guess for US corn yield is 175.8 vs USDA 174.6. Crop 14,942 vs USDA 14,750. Average trade guess for US soybean yield is 50.5 vs USDA 50.0 Crop 4,377 vs USDA 4,339.
Trade est US 2021 corn carryout near 1,169 vs USDA 1,117. 21/22 carryout 1,382 vs 1,242. Trade est US 20/21 soybean carryout near 166 vs USDA 160. 21/22 carryout 190 vs 155.
USDA could increase US 2021 corn acres and yield and raise exports use to keep carryout at 1,242.USDA is expected to lower US soybean 20/21 use and possibly 21/22 on uncertain China demand. Trade est World 21/22 corn stocks at 286 mt vs 284, soybean 97 vs 96, wheat 279 vs 279.
Last week Informa lowered Canada, EU, Kazakhstan wheat crops, EU corn crop. Russia wheat lower. Also last week, Informa lowered Canada canola crop and Argentina soybean crop estimates.
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