Written Commentary
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are higher. 5 day uptrend continues. SX is up 9 cents and near 12.37. SMZ is near 323.6. BOZ is near 63.40. CZ is up 2 cents and near 5.33. WZ is up 4 cents and near 7.40. KWZ is up 1 cent and near 7.48. MWZ is up 4 cents and near 9.78. Grain futures may be making seasonal lows.
US stocks are mixed. US Dollar is higher. Crude is lower. Copper is lower. China is looking at ways to lower coal prices. This is weighing on copper and Crude prices.
China will curb fertilizer exports to preserve domestic supplies. This could increase global prices. China Dalian corn, soymeal, palmoil, soyoil and rapeoil prices are higher. Soybean prices are lower.
Brazil weather favorable. Rains central and north. Drier south. Argentina dry. US Midwest dry. Brazil Real lower on political problems and inflation. Brazil truckers could strike due to high fuel cost.
US Midwest dry. East Midwest to see rains next week, slow harvest. EU and Black Sea dry.
Matif rapeseed futures made new contract highs. Canada canola prices higher. 5 days higher.
EU corn prices higher in low imports. Brazil and Argentina limited exports. EU has 25 pct tax on US corn. US corn market looking for demand. It has been 5 months since China has bought US corn. US ethanol margins, livestock feed margins, US corn export prices, soybean crush margins all positive.
US farmer selling slow. Soybean harvest near done. There is talk of new China interest in US soybeans.
MWZ making new highs due to low World milling supplies. KC adding weather premium. 41 cent rally in KC wheat futures has made US HRW less competitive to buyers. Russia prices higher. EU wheat shipments 10 mmt to date, up 60 pct yoy. Pace cannot be sustained. Prices need to go higher.
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