Written Commentary
Grains are marginally higher. SN is up 3 cents and near 8.74. CN is up 3 cents and near 3.33. WN is up 2 cents and near 4.91. Rumors of China buying a few cargoes of US soybeans and HRW offers support. Stocks are lower. Concern of a second outbreak of the virus still offers resistance to commodity and stock values. US Dollar is lower. Crude is higher.
US 7 day weather suggest good rains in the plains and west modest. Showers are also expected to t east. Temps moderate after the rains. This should be what crops need especially in the west Midwest.
Weekly US soybean export sales are estimated near 500-1,200 mt old crop and 600-1.300 mt new. Almost daily buying of US soybeans by China is helping support prices but may not be enough to reach USDA goal or Phase 1 promise. USDA est World soybean trade near 155 mt versus 148 last year. Brazil is estimate near 85 mmt versus 74 last year. US is estimated near 45 mmt versus 47 last year.
Weekly US corn export sales are estimated near 450-850 mt old crop and 50-300 mt new. Slow export sales pace and cheaper South America prices raise concern that final US exports may be below USDA guess. USDA est World corn trade near 169 mt versus 181 last year. Brazil is estimate near 35 mmt versus 39 last year.
Ukraine is est near 32 mt versus 30 last year. Argentina is est near 35 mmt versus 37 last year. US is estimated near 45 mmt versus 52 last year.
Weekly US wheat export sales are estimated near 250-300. Drop in economies of major importers raise concern that they may import less wheat and that final US exports may be below USDA guess. USDA est World wheat trade near 184 mt versus 172 last year. Europe is estimate near 36 mmt versus 23 last year. Russia is estimated near 33 mmt versus 36 last year. Ukraine is est near 26 mt versus 25 last year. Canada is est near 23 mmt versus 24 last year. US is estimated near 26 mmt versus 25 last year. Middle East imports are est near 17 mmt vs 17 last year, North Africa 28 vs 27 and south Asia 26 versus 26 ly.
On Wednesday. Managed Money were net sellers of 6,000 SRW wheat, bought 6,000 corn, bought 6,000 soybeans, even soymeal and bought 2,000 soyoil. We estimate funds are net short 40,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; net short 291,000 Corn; net long 31,000 Soybeans; net short 53,000 lots of Soymeal, and; are net short 1,000 Soyoil.
Risk Warning: Investments in Equities, Contracts for Difference (CFDs) in any instrument, Futures, Options, Derivatives and Foreign Exchange can fluctuate in value. Investors should therefore be aware that they may not realise the initial amount invested and may incur additional liabilities. These investments may be subject to above average financial risk of loss. Investors should consider their financial circumstances, investment experience and if it is appropriate to invest. If necessary, seek independent financial advice.
ADM Investor Services International Limited, registered in England No. 2547805, is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 148474] and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Registered office: 3rd Floor, The Minster Building, 21 Mincing Lane, London EC3R 7AG.
A subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company.
© 2021 ADM Investor Services International Limited.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM. The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.
