Grains Higher Overnight
Grains are higher. SH up 11 cents near 12.17. SMH is near 401.0. BOH is near 39.58. CH is up 1 cent and near 4.34. WH is up 3 cents and near 6.12. KWH is up 3 cents and near 5.73. There appears limited new selling above the grain market and new positive chart pattern is attracting to buying. US stocks are mixed. Crude is unchanged. Gold is lower. US Dollar is higher.
For the week, SRW Wheat prices are up down roughly 1 cent; HRW down 7; HRS down 1; Corn is up 10 cents; Soybeans up 51 cents; Soymeal up $20.00, and; Soyoil up 155 points. Crushing margins are up $0.09 at $1.00 (March); Oil share unchanged at 33%.
Chinese Ag futures (May) settled up 29 yuan in soybeans, up 4 in Corn, up 19 in Soymeal, up 98 in Soyoil, and up 52 in Palm Oil. Malaysian palm oil prices were up 65 ringgit at 3,443 (basis March) on La Nina supply concerns and labor shortage.
US All Wheat sales are running 10% ahead of a year ago, shipments down 1% with the USDA forecasting a 2% increase, Corn is up 142%, shipments up 59% with a 49% increase seen and Soybeans up 89%, shipments up 72% with 31% increase forecasted.
Nearby soybean futures finally rallied over 12.00 and now at 4 year highs. Forecast of dry weather across N, W and S Brazil and most of Argentina offers support. US soybean export commit is at 90 pct of USDA goal with 8 months left in market year. US soybean crush rate is at a record pace. Argentina strike could help demand for US soymeal. There are now new offers for Argentina meal. Private est of US 2021 soybean acres was too low and prices may need to rally to add acres.
Nearby corn futures rallied above initial resistance. Talk that final South America crops could be down 560 mil bu from USDA latest guess and China imports will also be higher suggest US corn exports will increase. Private est of US 2021 corn are were too low and prices may need to rally to increase acres. Argentina corn is rated only 24 pct good/ex. 27 pct of Brazil first corn crop is pollinating in most dry conditions. Rains could be limited to central/east.
Wheat futures are following corn and soybean. Talk that Russia customs may be slowing new export documents in a step to slow exports before the tax in imposed is positive. Russia weather looks to improve but EU wheat is now cheapest in the World and they may try to limit exports to use domestic supplies for feed. World buyers now have limited sources for cheap wheat. US Dollar near 30 moth low and Euro near 30 month high could help demand for US exports.
On Thursday Managed funds were net buyers of 9,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; 22,000 Corn; 14,000 Soybeans; 3,000 lots of Soymeal, and; 7,000 lots of Soyoil. We estimate Managed Money net long 29,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; long 324,000 Corn; net long 228,000 Soybeans; net long 81,000 lots of Soymeal, and; long 118,000 Soyoil.
Risk Warning: Investments in Equities, Contracts for Difference (CFDs) in any instrument, Futures, Options, Derivatives and Foreign Exchange can fluctuate in value. Investors should therefore be aware that they may not realise the initial amount invested and may incur additional liabilities. These investments may be subject to above average financial risk of loss. Investors should consider their financial circumstances, investment experience and if it is appropriate to invest. If necessary, seek independent financial advice.
ADM Investor Services International Limited, registered in England No. 2547805, is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 148474] and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Registered office: 3rd Floor, The Minster Building, 21 Mincing Lane, London EC3R 7AG.
A subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company.
© 2021 ADM Investor Services International Limited.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM. The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.