Written Commentary
Grains are higher. SN is up 3 cents and near 8.76. CN is up 1 cents and near 3.32. WN is up 1 cent and near 4.84. Rumors of China buying a few cargoes of US soybeans and HRS offers support. Stocks are higher. US Dollar is lower. Crude is higher.
US 7 day weather suggest good rains in the Plains and west Midwest. Showers are also expected to t east. Temps moderate after the rains. This should be what crops need especially in the west Midwest. NOAA 90 day US Midwest forecast calls for above normal temps and above normal rains.
Soyoil futures are higher and following higher Asian prices. Some link higher Asia prices to talk of lower China and India supplies.
July soybean remains range bound. Uncertainty over China buying US soybeans and how much offers resistance. Favorable US Midwest 2 week forecast also offer resistance. Fact US is competitive to China and fact the numbers suggest the need to buy US soybeans offers support. SN is above to 100 day for first time since January. Funds are small net soybean long and large net soymeal short.
Most of the corn news is bearish. Favorable US Midwest 2 week weather forecast and fact South America corn prices are cheaper than US offers resistance.CN is above the 20 and 50 day moving average. Funds are large net short corn futures. 100 day moving average is near 3.46. Funds are large net short corn. US farmer remain a reluctant sellers of large old and new crop supplies.
Chicago and KC wheat futures are under seasonal pressure due to US harvest. HRS futures are firm on China rumors. EU farmer is not selling until more is known above crop size and quality. World trade remains slow on concern over importers economies.
On Thursday. Managed Money were net sellers of 4,000 SRW wheat, bought 1,000 corn, bought 2,000 soybeans, bought 1,000 soymeal and sold 1,000 soyoil. We estimate funds are net short 44,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; net short 290,000 Corn; net long 33,000 Soybeans; net short 52,000 lots of Soymeal, and; are net short 2,000 Soyoil.
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