Written Commentary
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed. SH is up 3 cents and near 14.43. Contract high is 14.45. SMH is near 401.9. BOH is near 64.16. Contract high is 64.62. CH is down 1 cent and near 6.25. WH is down 1 cent and near 7.93. KWH is down 1 cent and near 8.14. MWH is up 3 cents and near 9.19.
US stocks are higher. US Dollar is higher. Crude is higher. Gold, silver, copper, coffee, cocoa, sugar and cotton are lower. US Central Bank hawkish comments offered resistance to equites and commodities.
Dalian soymeal, palmoil, soyoil and corn are higher. Soybean lower. China New Year next week. China imposed $645 mil tarrif on US goods. Total now $ 4.6 bil vs Trump China tarrif $300 bil.
Paraguay, S Brazil, N Argentina warm and dry. Rain in N and C Brazil. La Nina returns Feb-March.
It appears that any Russian invasion of Ukraine is on hold. World shipowners invoke war clause. There is talk US sent Russia written stance on Ukraine. Ukraine is free to enter NATO. World is awaiting Russia response. No action expected until after China Winter Olympics.
Informa est US 2022 corn acres 91.5 down 1.9 ly, soybeans 87.8 up .6, wheat 48.1 up 1.4.
Weekly US soybean export sales est at 500-1,300 mt, corn 600-1,200, wheat 200-600
Brazil soybean crop below 130 mmt? MGDS soybean crop 33 G/E vs 91 in Dec.
Despite recent rains, Argentina soybean crop could be 40-44 mmt vs USDA 46.5 SH near 14.43. Prices reflect lower SA supplies and possible higher US exports/crush.
South America weather/corn supplies, Black Sea exports, China import margins key to corn. Normal Brazil weather could help Brazil second corn crop. Will Ukraine ship 700 mil bu? Dalian corn futures at new highs and near $11.16. Brazil domestic corn price $7.75. CH near 6.26. CH-CK +1 cent. US cash corn basis firm. Barge basis +800. Export demand on rise
Funds have covered their 50,000 Chicago wheat short. WH up 94 cents in 6 trading days. Most of the wheat rally due to concern over Black Sea exports. Some profit taking yesterday. US south plains still dry. Forecast is dry. USDA HRW crop ratings down and below last year.
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