Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are lower. US stocks are lower. US Dollar is lower. Crude remains near $69. Gold is higher. USDA March 31 stocks and acreage report and April 2 when new tariff reciprocal will be announced will be key to price volatility. Crude supported by US pressure on Iran and Venezuelan exports and declining US inventories. Resistance found on US tariff on car and truck imports.
SOYBEANS
SK is near 10.13. Dalian soybean, soymeal, palmoil and soyoil futures were higher. Weekly US soybean export sales were 338 mt. Total commit is up 13 pct vs ly and USDA up 8. Trade could see US 2025 acres near 83.8 vs 87.0 ly. March 1 stocks 1,905 mil bu vs 1,845 ly. There is no clarity concerning US and China trade talks especially tax on China flag vessel into US ports. Soyoil rallied on talk Ag and energy lobby is pressuring US government on increase biofuel production. Tariffs on China and Canada imports of competing oils for fuel also supportive. Soyoil pct of board crush up to 42.5 pct. Board crush highest level in 3 weeks. Brazil soybean basis lower on slow China buying.
CORN
CK is near 4.46. CK-CU out to -9. CU-CZ is out to -8. Dalian corn futures remain near Feb lows. Brazil ethanol production is up 40 pct yoy. Trade looking for lower 2025 corn prices if US farmers plant 94.4 mil corn acres vs 90.6 last year and summer weather is normal. Some estimates are now as high as 96.0. Trade could see US March 1 stocks near 8,154 mil bu vs 8,352 ly. US corn export commit is up 24 pct vs ly and USDA up 7. There was talk S Korea was active buyer of corn. Argentina corn harvest at 19 pct and well ahead of ly. EU threatening 25 pct tariif on US corn. US 25 pct tariff on imported autos and parts could upset Asian corn buyers.
WHEAT
WK is near 5.24. KWK is near 5.55. MWK is near 5.81. WK-WN spread near -16. EU weather maps forecast Russia rains. US plains could see rains mid next week. 2025 all US wheat acres could be near 46.5 vs 46.0 ly. March 1 stocks 1,221 mil bu vs 1,089 ly. For first time since 2021, US wheat export commit is up 12 pct vs ly and USDA up 18. 2 month low. Matif futures near 4 month low on slow import buying/demand.
Interested in more futures markets? Explore our Market Dashboards here.
Risk Warning: Investments in Equities, Contracts for Difference (CFDs) in any instrument, Futures, Options, Derivatives and Foreign Exchange can fluctuate in value. Investors should therefore be aware that they may not realise the initial amount invested and may incur additional liabilities. These investments may be subject to above average financial risk of loss. Investors should consider their financial circumstances, investment experience and if it is appropriate to invest. If necessary, seek independent financial advice.
ADM Investor Services International Limited, registered in England No. 2547805, is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 148474] and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Registered office: 3rd Floor, The Minster Building, 21 Mincing Lane, London EC3R 7AG.
A subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company.
© 2021 ADM Investor Services International Limited.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM. The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.
