Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are lower. SN is down 2 cents and near 11.79. SMN is near 358.9. BON is near 43.30. CN is down 1 cent and near 4.47. WN is down 4 cents and near 6.03. KWN is down 6 cents and near 6.45. MWN is down 5 cents and near 7.02. Stocks are lower before US Fed meeting, US Dollar is higher. Crude is higher on talk of lower OPEC supply. Gold is lower. Higher and longer US rates could be competition for Gold bulls. There is talk of new Israel/Hamas ceasefire talks.
SN is near 11.79.. SK-SN spread -is near -22. Could be 500 deliveries. Heavy storms hit parts of the Midwest and east S plains. USDA est US soybean plantings near 18 pct and 10 average. Weekend rains could slow plantings. IL is 26, AR 56, IA 25, OH 10. US exports to date are down 18 pct vs ly and USDA est of down 15. Soymeal firm on fund buying and Argentina strike. Higher meal is helping board crush and dropping oil share to 3 month low. Asia palmoil futures lower on talk of lower palmoil exports. Matif rapeseed is higher on talk of Baltic replanting.
CN is near 4.47. Strong domestic demand and slow farmer selling is supporting futures and spreads. CK-CN near -9. CN-CZ is near -24. Could be zero deliveries. US corn plantings are 27 pct. IL 25, IA 39, MN 30, NE 22 and OH 6. US exports to date are up 32 pct vs ly and USDA est of up 26. Brazil safrina harvest is starting early and offering resistance to Brazil futures. Brazil and Argentina farmer has slowed due to Argentina strike. Strike on higher wages but more important New President policies.
WN is near 6.03. KWK-WK is near +71 and new highs. US HRW south plains rains were less than hoped. Russia is forecast to see needed rains. Some est US 2024/25 carryout at 740 due to higher supply. Wheat could be about weather (US, EU, Black Sea), with May a critical month. US spring wheat plantings 34 vs 15 last week. Winter wheat rating 49 G/E vs 50 las week and 28 ly. US exports to date are up 7 pct vs ly and USDA est of up 6.5. Could be 700 soyoil deliveries and no soymeal.
Interested in more futures markets? Explore our Market Dashboards here.
Risk Warning: Investments in Equities, Contracts for Difference (CFDs) in any instrument, Futures, Options, Derivatives and Foreign Exchange can fluctuate in value. Investors should therefore be aware that they may not realise the initial amount invested and may incur additional liabilities. These investments may be subject to above average financial risk of loss. Investors should consider their financial circumstances, investment experience and if it is appropriate to invest. If necessary, seek independent financial advice.
ADM Investor Services International Limited, registered in England No. 2547805, is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 148474] and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Registered office: 3rd Floor, The Minster Building, 21 Mincing Lane, London EC3R 7AG.
A subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company.
© 2021 ADM Investor Services International Limited.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM. The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.
