Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are lower. SH is down 5 cents and near 12.43. SMH is near 366.4. BOH is near 48.32. CH is down 1 cent and near 4.57. WH is down 2 cents and near 6.07. KWH is down 4 cents and near 6.22. MWH is unch and near 7.05. US stocks are higher. US Dollar is lower. Crude is lower. Gold is higher. Meats were higher. Red Sea drone attacks increased.
CH is near 4.56. Dalian corn prices were lower. Trade volume increased on Tuesday especially CH-CK spread. Trade est US 2023 corn crop at 15,226 mil bu vs 15,234 in Nov and 2023/24 carryout at 2,105 vs 2,131 in Dec. Average trade est for Brazil corn is 125 mmt vs USDA 129, Argentina 54.8 vs 34 ly. Trade est World corn end stocks at 313.0 mmt vs 315.2 in Dec. Trade est Dec 1 US corn stocks at 12,050 mil bu vs 10,813 ly.
SH is near 12.41. SMH is down below 370 support. BOH back above 48. Trade est US 2023 soybean crop at 4,127 vs 4,129 in Nov and 2023/24 carryout at 243 vs 245 in Dec. Trade est Brazil corn crop at 156.2 mmt vs USDA 161, Argentina 48.8 vs 25 ly. Trade est World soybean end stocks at 111.5 mmt vs 114.2 in Dec. Trade est Dec 1 US soybean stocks at 2,975 mil bu vs 3,021 ly. Dalian soymeal were lower. Palmoil and soyoil were higher. SN-SX spread down to +57 vs +100 ly.
WH is near 6.06. KWH is near 6.22. MWH is near 7.04. Egypt bought 60 mt Ukraine and 360 mt Russia. Increase Mexico buying US wheat supported futures on Tuesday. Wheat option volatility is up since first of year. US, EU and Black Sea temps turn colder. Few concerned about winterkill. Trade est US 2024 winter wheat acres at 35.8 mil bu vs 36.7 ly. Trade est World wheat end stocks at 258.1 mmt vs 258.2 in Dec. Trade est Dec 1 US wheat stocks at 1,387 mil bu vs 1,312 ly.
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