Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
USDA report day. Grains are lower. SX is down 1 cent and near 13.75. SMZ is near 405.3. BOZ is near 65.33. CZ is down 2 cents and near 6.90. WZ is down 7 cents and near 8.93. KWZ is down 5 cents and near 9.85. MWZ is down 4 cents and near 9.80.
USDA is expected to raise US 2022/23 soybean carryin, lower crop and lower exports which could increase carryout. Should keep South America numbers unchanged which leaves China imports only potential change in global numbers. US soybean exports are down from last year. Could be due to river logistics challenges. US soybean harvest is 44 pct and ahead of trade guess and crop is rated up 2 pct and near 57 pct G/E. Brazil soybean crop is 11 pct planted. There are no US nearby soybean export prices and there are no Dec Brazil prices. There are no Dec-Feb Argentina soybean prices. There are no US nearby soymeal prices and there are no Jan-Feb Brazil or Argentina prices. Dalian soybean prices were lower. Soymeal, palmoil and soyoil were higher. Some want to sell a USDA rally today.
USDA is expected to lower US 2022/23 corn carryin, lower crop and lower exports and increase feed/residual which could reduce carryout. Should keep South America and Ukraine numbers unchanged. US corn exports are down from last year. Could be due to river logistics challenges. US corn harvest is 31 pct and below trade guess and crop is rated up 2 pct and near 54 pct G/E. Brazil soybean crop is 11 pct planted. There are no US nearby corn export prices and there are no Jan-Feb Argentina and Ukraine export prices. Matif corn futures are lower on increase imports. Over last 2 days Russia has bombed 30 pct of Ukraine energy and infrastructure areas. Dalian corn futures were higher. What is China actual corn supply? Some want to sell a USDA rally today.
USDA is expected to lower US 2022/23 wheat crop and lower demand which could reduce carryout. Should keep World numbers unchanged. Despite talk of higher Russia and Australia crops. US wheat exports are down from last year. US winter wheat plantings are near 55 pct and below last year with KS emergence at only 19 percent vs 31 ly. US south plains weather and forecast is dry. Big bad bear news on Tuesday was that Russia may not have an Feb-June wheat export quota. Most did not expect one given talk of a 100 mmt crop. Argentina wheat crop could be lower than USDA est which could lower their exports. Some want to buy a USDA selloff today. Most Ukraine bound vessels are on hold in Turkey with buyers reluctant to send vessels to Ukraine.
US Dollar is higher. US stocks are higher. Crude is unchanged and near $88. Gold, silver, copper and cotton are lower. Coffee, cocoa, sugar are higher.
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