Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are lower. Stocks are higher. US Dollar and Crude are unch.
SU is near 10.44. USDA est US 2023/24 soybean carryout at 345 vs USDA June 350 and 2024/25 at 435 vs USDA 455. One analyst still est US 23/24 at 385 and 24/25 at 512. Trade est NOPA June soybean crush at 177.9 mil bu vs March 183.6 and 165.0 ly. China bought US new crop soybeans last week but some feel new sales may be limited. Weekend rains were in NC Midwest. Tropical storm Beryl added rains in IA and IL. E Midwest ended drier than expected. This week should be dry with temps near normal.
CU is near 3.96. US domestic and export basis is firm. USDA est US 2023/24 corn carryout at 1,877 vs USDA 2,022. USDA increased exports and feed/residual. In days of pit trading, corn futures may have opened 7-8 cents higher with the big miss. USDA 2024/25 was est at 2,097 vs 2,312 expected. Weekend rains were in NC Midwest. Tropical storm Beryl added rains in IA and IL. E Midwest ended drier than expected. This week should be dry with temps above normal.
WU is near 5.39. USDA est US 2024/25 wheat carryout at 856 vs 788 expected. USDA est US 2024 all wheat crop at 2,008 vs 1.909 expected. Spring wheat crop is est at 578 vs 468 ly. Black Sea prices are cheapest but August World trade is thin. SE Europe, Ukraine and Russia heat remains concern to everyone but AI trading machines. USDA numbers were bearish. Only bullish thing is drop in US Dollar.
Interested in more futures markets? Explore our Market Dashboards here.
Risk Warning: Investments in Equities, Contracts for Difference (CFDs) in any instrument, Futures, Options, Derivatives and Foreign Exchange can fluctuate in value. Investors should therefore be aware that they may not realise the initial amount invested and may incur additional liabilities. These investments may be subject to above average financial risk of loss. Investors should consider their financial circumstances, investment experience and if it is appropriate to invest. If necessary, seek independent financial advice.
ADM Investor Services International Limited, registered in England No. 2547805, is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 148474] and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Registered office: 3rd Floor, The Minster Building, 21 Mincing Lane, London EC3R 7AG.
A subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company.
© 2021 ADM Investor Services International Limited.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM. The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.
