Written Commentary
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed. SK is down 6 cents and near 15.04. SMK is near 481.8. BOK is near 57.01. CK is unch but near 6.11. WK is up 1 cent but near 6.67. KWK is up 2 cents but near 7.79. MWK is unch but near 8.17.
Word that one US Bank loss $1.8 billion in selling $20 billion Treasuries when US interest rates were low sent shock waves through Bank stocks and the US stocks market. This and threat of even higher US rates also weighed on most commodity markets. Talk that one crypto Bank is closing weighed on bitcoin.
Soybean futures are back near 15.00 support. Weekly US export sales were a net negative due to a Pakistan cancellation and 300 mt unknown cancellation. Argentina weather will remain hot and dry through March 19. Along with lower crop and higher imports this is a disaster for Argentina Ag industry and economy. Still lower China crush margins, China subsidizing farmers to plant more soybean acres and near record Brazil crop weighs on soybean futures. World vegoil prices are also in freefall due to concerns over higher non soyoil 2023 vegoil production and lower Asian and now EU demand. There is also concern about delay in US biofuel demand.
Corn futures also dropped to 7 month low despite higher than expected weekly US export sales. US total commit is 39 pct below last year despite the increase in sales and versus USDA lower March export goal that is down 29 pct. US weekly sales need to average 625 mt sales per week to reach USDA new goal. Weekly US ethanol stocks were higher than last week and last year. On the positive side, US southern excess rains could delay 2023 corn plantings and US corn prices are below SA. Ukraine exports are in question and there 2023 crop could be well below average and last year. Still no word on if Ukraine export corridor deal will be extended.
Wheat prices sank on low US weekly export sales and increase money flow selling. Managed funds continue to add to near record Chicago wheat short. WK is near 20 month low, KWK 14 month low and MWK new contract lows. WK is oversold with RSI near 23, KWN near 28 and MWK near 20. EU and Russia wheat end stocks are near record high. While Russia wheat export prices are below US, French, German, Baltic and Balkan prices are now below Russia. There is some concern about US HRW dryness, excess rains in US SRW areas, dryness in Canada and potential dryness in Australia. Black Sea winter wheat harvest could also be down due to ongoing Ukraine war and less than ideal start to Russia planting season.
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