Written Commentary
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed. SX is down 3 cents and near 12.84. SMZ is near 339.2. BOZ is near 57.88. CZ is down 1 cent and near 5.38. WZ is up 3 cent and near 7.25. KWZ is up 1 cent and near 7.21. MWZ is up 1 cent and near 9.23. US stocks are lower. US Dollar is higher. Crude is higher and near $76.
Crude oil and Nat Gas futures are higher on concern over lower supply vs global demand. UK gas limited. China soybean, corn and soymeal futures are higher. Palmoil and soyoil lower. China holiday next week. China announced they will safeguard housing consumers if Evergrande defaults. Not foreign investors.
Trade watching China for any news on economy. 44 pct of China industry impacted by power shortage. Soybeans rallied on fact China bought US soybeans, talk of lower US harvest yields and higher Crude.
USDA left US soybean crop rated 58 pct G/E vs 64 last year. 16 pct crop harvested vs 13 ave. MN and ND are ahead of average harvest. AR 25, IL 10, OH 5, IA 18, MN 30, NE 4, ND 26, SD 17.
Corn rallied on rumors China buying US corn after China CEO was released from Canada and sent home.
USDA left US corn crop rated 59 pct G/E vs 61 last year. 18 pct crop harvested vs 15 ave. IL 21 vs 18 ave, in 15, OH 6, MO 34, KY 39, TN 43, IA 9, MN 10, NE 13, ND 9, SD 10, and TX 83.
Argentina farmers have stopped corn planting waiting for rain. 1st crop Brazil 30 pct planted, also dry. Brazil Sept corn exports only 2.5 mmt vs 6.5 ly. Matif corn higher on late harvest. Ukraine yields lower.
US 2022 winter wheat plantings 34 pct vs 32 ave. Needed rains are forecasted for US HRW area. Brazil ban on imported GMO wheat could stop Argentina. 6.7 mmt imports. US/Russia exports? Matif new crop wheat futures traded to new highs on concern and seed and higher fertilizer cost. South America farmers concerned about 2022 crops due to La Nina. US farmers should also be watchful.
US farmers remain reluctant sellers of additional corn crop. Willing to store for higher prices. Same farmers could increase soybean cash sales due to uncertain China buying and 2022 SA crops.
Grain traders will watch to see if Congress raises debt ceiling. USDA will release Sep 1 stocks Thursday. Trade est US Sep 1 wheat stocks 1,852 vs 2,158 ly, corn 1,155 vs 1,919 ly, soybeans 174 vs 525 ly.
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