Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed. US stocks are slightly lower. Will US Fed cut rates or not? US Dollar is lower. Crude is higher. Gold is higher. Al Qaeda backed rebels overthrow Assad Syrian government. Israel immediately ordered seizing the demilitarized buffer zone between Israel and Syria. China announced that will have more stimulus in 2025 to boost domestic demand and stabilize housing and property market as well as loosen its official stance on monetary policy. In November, China Central Bank resumed buying gold after a 6 month pause.
SOYBEANS
SH is near 10.00. Dalian palmoil futures were higher, soyoil lower. South America crop lands are now well watered. N and C Brazil is in bloom and pod filling stage with harvest starting in late Jan. Trade est US soybean carryout at 469 mil bu vs USDA Nov est of 470. Trade also est Brazil soybean crop at 169.3 mmt vs USDA Nov est of 169.0 and Argentina at 51.3 mmt vs 51.0. Trade est World soybean end stocks near 132.4 mmt vs USDA Nov 131.7. Soybean and soymeal futures should trend lower.
CORN
CH is near 4.40. Dalian corn futures were higher. US ethanol production is up 4 pct yoy and export commit is up 33 pct. Trade est US corn carryout at 1,906 mil bu vs USDA Nov est of 1,938. Trade also est Brazil corn crop at 127.1 mmt vs USDA Nov est of 127.0 and Argentina at 50.8 mmt vs 51.0. Trade est World corn end stocks near 303.5 mmt vs USDA Nov 304.1. Some est US Dec 1 corn stocks near last year despite a record 2024 yield. Corn futures are above long term value.
WHEAT
WH is near 5.62. KWH is near 5.58. MWH is near 6.00. Talk of lower Russia export supplies helped rally futures. Trade est US wheat carryout at 814 mil bu vs USDA Nov est of 815. Trade est World wheat end stocks near 257.7 mmt vs USDA Nov 257.5. Australia rains may be reducing quality which helped rally futures. Wheat is now over 20 DMA resistance.
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