Grains Mixed in Volatile Market
Grains are mixed. SU is down 6 cents and near 13.61. SX is down 86cents and near 13.53. SMU is near 356.3. BOU is near 64.02. CU is down 2 cents and near 5.46. CZ is down 2 cents and near 5.43. WU is up 10 cents and near 6.85. KWU is up 9 cents and near 6.50. MWU is up 16 cents and near 8.94.
US stocks are mixed. Asian stocks have stopped declining as China media calls for calm. US Dollar is higher. Crude is higher.
Still talk of net drying next 10 days for US NW Midwest, north plains, Canada prairies and US PNW. MWU closed off session highs on talk of better SE ND spring wheat yields and slow US export trade. First day of US annual spring wheat tour yield 29.5 or 35 pct below 2019 and 32 pct below 5 year ave.
Most grain futures have air pockets above and below market which adds to market volatility.
Analyst est US 21/22 SB carryout 120 vs 155. USDA US soybean goal 61.8, Brazil 83.0. China imports 98.0. Brazil appears to be sold out of beans. Low water slowing Argentina exports. China demand for US key.
Analyst est US 21/22 corn carryout 970 vs 1,432. USDA corn export goal 72.4, Arg 35.5, Ukraine 23. Brazil domestic corn prices higher than export. Argentina exports to Brazil. Brazil crop/exports lower.
Analyst est US 21/22 wheat carryout 580 vs USDA 665. USDA US export goal 23.8, Russia 40, Ukraine 21. Canada, Russia wheat crops lower than USDA. EU rains slowing harvest. Ukraine wheat lowest price
Continued active China Jan-Mar soymeal traded triggered rumors of China buying US Jan-Mar soybeans. Rumors China buying US new crop corn and soybean futures for Jan-Mar buying US soybeans.
US domestic soybean crush slowing offered support to meal. US weekly ethanol prod/stocks lower. Dalian corn futures higher. Soymeal higher. Malaysian palmoil futures lower
On Tuesday, Managed funds were net sellers of 2,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; 4,000 soyoil and 2,000 corn and bought 3,000 soybeans; and 4,000 soymeal. We estimate Managed Money net short 15,000 SRW Wheat; long 221,000 Corn; net long 89,000 Soybeans; net long 22,000 lots of Soymeal, and; long 57,000 lota of soyoil.
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