Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
USDA report day. Month end and Quarter end. Grains are mixed. US stocks are lower. US Dollar is lower on fears of lower US trade. Crude is slightly higher on talk US could sanction buyers of Russian oil. Gold is higher and making new highs. April 2 new tariff reciprocal could be key to price volatility. Goldman Sachs now estimate US 2025 GDP at 1 pct and Fed could cut rates 3 times in 2025.
SOYBEANS
SK is near 10.27. Trade could see USDA estimate US 2025 acres lower and near 83.8 vs 87.0 ly. March 1 stocks 1,905 mil bu vs 1,845 ly. There is no clarity concerning US and China trade talks especially tax on China flag vessel into US ports. US soyoil exports could be 600-800 mil lbs higher than USDA. Tariffs on China and Canada imports of competing oils for fuel also supportive. Key to 2025/26 US soybean carryout could be higher yield that could offset lower US acres. Estimates of higher US 2025/26 crush could be offset by lower exports.
CORN
CK is near 4.54. CK-CN spread is near -6 and supported by US export demand. Brazil forecast is dry. US Delta and SC Midwest forecast is wet. There is some new concern US south Midwest and SE corn acres could be planed later than normal. USDA could estimate US farmers to plant 94.4 mil corn acres in 2025 vs 90.6 last year. Some estimates are now as high as 96.0. Trade could see US March 1 stocks near 8,154 mil bu vs 8,352 ly. Higher 2025 US corn crop and lower exports could offset lower carryin and higher feed and residual.
WHEAT
WK is near 5.28. KWK is near 5.46. MWK is near 5.79. EU weather maps forecast Russia rains. US plains could see rains mid next week. 2025 all US wheat acres could be near 46.5 vs 46.0 ly. March 1 stocks 1,221 mil bu vs 1,089 ly. Managed funds are record short Chicago, KC wheat and Matif wheat futures. Wheat futures struggling to find new buying given talk of slower World demand and talk of freer Russian wheat export flow and fact Russia could expand Bank exposure with Swift. Despite estimates of US 2025 wheat crop near 1,913 mil bu vs 1,971 last year, US 2025/26 wheat carryout could be near 843 mil bu. Higher carryin could offset lower imports and higher exports.
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