Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed. SN is down 2 cents and near 13.49. SMN is near 399.7. BON is near 49.29. CN is down 2 cents and near 6.06. WN is unch and near 6.18. KWN is up 2 cents and near 8.14. MWN is up 3 cents and near 8.10. US stocks are mixed. US Dollar is higher. Crude is higher and did test $75 overnight.
Soybean futures are lower. June is usually a transition month from demand to supply. ECMWF weather map has rain this weekend across parts of US Midwest. GFS is still dry through day 10 but has rain day 11-15. N EU, Russia. Ukraine are dry. Canada is hot. Last week fund liquidation dropped SN to 13.00. New demand buying helped SN bounce to 13.52. USDA could increase US 2022/23 soybean carryout 15 mil bu to 230 and 2023/24 15 mil bu to 350.
CN is lower, CZ is higher. June is usually a transition month from demand to supply. US 10 day GFS weather forecast call for dry US Midwest weather. Key is weather after the 7 day. N EU, Russia. Ukraine are dry. Canada is hot.. USDA could increase US 2022/23 corn carryout 50 mil bu to 1,467 and 2023/24 50 mil bu to 2,272. They could raise Brazil crop and keep Argentina unchanged. Brazil corn is cheaper that US to most buyers.
Wheat futures are mixed. Last week, profit taking dropped KWN and MWN. EU, Russia, Ukraine are dry. Canada is hot. USDA estimates World wheat crop at 789 mmt vs 788 ly. . Some feel crop could drop 12 mmt to 777. Continued adverse global weather could drop crop another 20 mmt. Funds are short 127,000 Chicago wheat contracts. USDA could increase US 2022/23 wheat carryout 10 mil bu to 608 and 2023/24 40 mil bu to 596. USDA could increase US wheat crop 46 mil bu. HRW up 36 and SRW up 10.
Risk Warning: Investments in Equities, Contracts for Difference (CFDs) in any instrument, Futures, Options, Derivatives and Foreign Exchange can fluctuate in value. Investors should therefore be aware that they may not realise the initial amount invested and may incur additional liabilities. These investments may be subject to above average financial risk of loss. Investors should consider their financial circumstances, investment experience and if it is appropriate to invest. If necessary, seek independent financial advice.
ADM Investor Services International Limited, registered in England No. 2547805, is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 148474] and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Registered office: 3rd Floor, The Minster Building, 21 Mincing Lane, London EC3R 7AG.
A subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company.
© 2021 ADM Investor Services International Limited.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM. The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.
