Written Commentary
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed. WOB and NASS report today. Roll the dice. SU is up 5 cents near 13.343 SX is up 5 cents and near 13.33. SMU is near 354.3. BOU is near 62.20. CU is up 4 cents and near 5.34. CZ is up 4 cents and near 5.24. WU is unch and near 6.15. KWU is unch and near 5.93. MWU is up 11 cents and near 8.25. US stocks are lower. Crude is lower. US Dollar is higher.
Trade reaction to recent WOB report has been quick and volatile. Charts suggest SU In a potential broad range from 12.50 to 14.50, BOU 60 to 65. BOU supported by higher World canola prices. SMU 350-370, CU 5.20 to 5.60 and WU 6.00 to 6.40. Some still feel MWU could test 9.00 to 9.50.
Trade est US 2021/22 corn carryout 1,402 vs 1,357, soybean 148 vs 155 and wheat 729 vs 770. Trade est US 2021 corn crop near 15,115 mil bu vs WOB June est of 14,990. Soybeans 4,394 vs 4,405. Trade est US 2021 wheat crop 1,847 vs 1,898. WW 1,331 vs 1,309, SW 459 vs 560 ly
Last month WOB est 2021 Canada wheat crop near 32 mmt vs 35.2 ly, Russia wheat 86.0 vs 85.3. Last month WOB est Ukraine 2021 corn crop near 37.5 mmt vs 30.3 ly. China 268 mmt vs 260 ly.
Trade est Brazil corn crop at 92.2 vs 98.5, soybean 136.7. Argentina corn 47.4 and soybean 46.6. Trade est World 21/22 corn carryout at 288.9 mmt vs 289.4, soybean 92.5 vs 92.6, wheat 295.4 vs 296.8.
Some est weekly US corn rating unch to down 1 pct from 64, soybean unch to down 1 pct from 59, spring wheat down 1-2 from 16. Record low US spring wheat rating was 6 in 1988. WW harvest 66 vs 64 average. Some worried about too much rain in SRW area. US weekly corn exports have been near 48 mil bu, soybean 7 and wheat 10.
On Friday, Managed funds were net sellers of 2,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; 8,000 corn and 3,000 soymeal and bought 7,000 soybeans and 5,000 soyoil. We estimate Managed Money net short 16,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; long 195,000 Corn; net long 71,000 Soybeans; net long 22,000 lots of Soymeal, and; long 52,000 Soyoil.
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