Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed to higher. US stock are mixed. Crude is steady at $60. Gold is lower. Copper is lower. Some feel US companies are no longer willing to retain workers amid shrinking pool of laborers and back laying off marginal workers. AI beginning to replace analyst reports. Investors will be watching retailers earnings reports and SCOTUS decision on Trump tariffs. South America weather is mostly favorable for crops.
SOYBEANS
SF is near 11.30. There were 6 SX soybean deliveries. LDC stopped 4. USDA est US soybean crop at 4,253 mil bu vs USDA Sep 4,301. USDA also est US 2025/26 soybean carryout near 290 mil bu vs USDA Sep 300. USDA dropped 24/25 crush 8 mil but left 25/26 at record 2,555 mil bu. USDA left 24/25 exports at 1,875 mil bu but lowered 25/26 50 mil bu to 1,635. Some look exports could be closer to 1,500 and carryout near 485. Trump and Bessent said China will buy US soybeans. USDA increased US 24/25 soyoil biofuel use 350 mil lbs. They dropped 24/25 domestic soymeal use 200 tst and exports 200 tst.
CORN
CH is near 4.44. USDA est US corn crop at 16,752 mil bu vs USDA Sep 16,814. USDA also estimated US 2025/26 corn carryout near 2,154 mil bu vs USDA Sep estimate of 2,110. Some est carryout closer to 2,435 due to lower demand. USDA left 24/25 exports at 2,830 mil bu vs 2,255 ly. They raised 25/26 exports 100 mil bu to record 3,075 mil bu. 25/26 ethanol use at 5,600 mil bu vs 24/25 5,436. USDA dropped China corn imports from 10.0 mmt to 8.0.
WHEAT
WH is near 5.46. KWH is near 5.33. MWH is near 5.79. USDA est US 2025/26 wheat carryout at 901 mil bu vs USDA Sep estimate of 844. World wheat stocks are 271.4 mmt vs USDA Sep est of 264.0. USDA est Argentina crop at 22.0 mmt (up 2.5), Australia 36.0 (up 1.5), Canada 37.0 (1.0) and Russia 86.5 (up 1.5), Some look at US 2026 wheat acres at 44.5 millon vs 45.3 this past year. Crop near 1,857. Demand 2,006 which leaves carryout near 850.
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