Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed. SF is up 14 cents and near 13.66. SMZ is near 441.9. BOZ is near 49.95. CZ is up 2 cents and near 4.79. WZ is down 4 cents and near 5.68. KWZ is down 3 cents and near 6.39. MWZ is down 4 cents and near 7.16. US stocks are higher. US Dollar is lower. Crude is higher after Russia and Saudi Arabia reaffirm supply cuts.
Soybean futures are higher. SF traded over key moving average and is near 13.65. There remains too much rain in S Brazil. North Brazil saw some showers but central and north Brazil forecast is dry. There is talk that Brazil may need to replant as much as 20-25 pct of acres. There is talk that China has interest in US Feb gulf soybeans. US soybean prices are competitive Dec forward. USDA report this week. Some estimate US soybean carryout near 240 vs USDA 220 due to higher crop and lower exports. US final crush could be higher.
Corn futures are slightly higher. Trade still looking for higher export demand. US export prices are cheapest and there is concern about Ukraine export pace. USDA report this week. Some estimate US corn carryout near 2,180 vs USDA 2,111. USDA could increase US corn yield on their November report. USDA could also lower US exports but increase ethanol.. CZ support 4.70. Upside objective could be 5.20.
Wheat futures are lower. Russia continues to offer cheap wheat for export. Lack of new buying interest continues to weigh on wheat futures. There is new concern about Ukraine export flow. Dry US south plains weather could offer support. WZ continues to trade sideways between 5.50 and 6.00. WZ is 90 cents over CZ with support near 87 and resistance near 100.
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