Grains Mostly Unch in Quiet Trade
Grains are mixed in quiet trade. SN is unchanged and near 8.69. CN is up 2 cents and near 3.19. WN is unchanged and near 4.86. Seasonally, normal US summer weather suggest lower corn and soybean prices. US stocks are mixed. US Dollar is higher. Crude is higher.
For the week, SRW Wheat prices are up roughly 1 cent; HRW up 2; HRS down 14; Corn is down 16 cents; Soybeans down 13; Soymeal unchanged, and; Soyoil down 90 points. Crushing margins are up 1 cent at 89 cents; Oil share down 1% at 32%.
Chinese Ag futures were closed for holiday. Malaysian palm oil prices were down 3 ringgit at 2,392 (basis September) at midsession over demand concerns if a second wave of pandemic occurs.
Last night’s GFS model run continued to suggest some meaningful rainfall in eastern Montana, the western Dakotas; rain will occur which will help promote at least some relief from the recent dryness. The GFS model also showed a weak tropical system moving out of the Gulf of Mexico and into Louisiana Jul. 6 and then quickly dissipate; the system could enhance rainfall in some crop areas along and near the Gulf of Mexico and where it goes from there would depend on the position and strength of the high pressure ridge.US 6-10 day and 8-14 day forecast calls for above normal temps and normal rains except south plains which will be dry.
For the week ended June 18th, U.S. All Wheat sales are running 1% behind a year ago, shipments up 11% with the USDA forecasting a 2% decline on the year. For the week ended June 18th, U.S. Corn sales are running 14% behind a year ago, shipments 24% behind with the USDA forecasting a 14% decline. For the week ended June 18th, U.S. Soybean sales are running 6% behind a year ago, shipments unchanged with the USDA forecasting a 6% decline on the year.
The International Grains Council raised its forecast for global wheat production in the 2020/21 season, with improved outlooks for Australia and China more than offsetting a downward revision for the European Union; increased its global wheat crop forecast by 2 million tons to 768 million, up from the prior season’s 762 million. The council put 2020/21 world corn (maize) production at 1.172 billion tons, up from its previous projection of 1.169 billion, while total grains output was raised by 7 million tons of 2.237 billion. Grains stocks by the end of the 2020/21 season were expected to climb to a three-year high of 635 million tons, up 20 million tons from a year earlier. World soybean production in 2020/21 was seen at 364 million, slightly up from a previous projection of 363 million.
Next Tuesday, USDA will release estimates of US June 1 stocks and US 2020 acres by crop. Trade estimates US June 1 soybean stocks near 1,392 mil bu versus 1,783 last year, June 1 corn stocks near 4,959 mil bu versus 5,202 last year and US June 1 wheat stocks near 987 mil bu versus 1,080 last year.
Trade also estimates US 2020 soybean acres near 84.8 million versus USDA March guess of 83.5 and 76.1 last year, US 2020 corn acres near 95.1 million versus USDA March guess of 97.0 and 89.3 last year and US 2020 wheat acres near 44.7 million versus USDA March guess of 44.7and 45.2 last year.
Delivery registrations total 11 contracts for SRW Wheat; ZERO Oats; Corn ZERO; Soybeans ZERO; Soyoil 3,495 lots; Soymeal 511; Rice 106; HRW Wheat 17, and; HRS 488.
On Thursday, Managed funds were net buyers of 2,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; net sold 21,000 Corn; sold 3,000 Soybeans; net sold 2,000 soymeal, and; sold 2,000 Soyoil. We estimate Managed Money net short 40,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; short 316,000 Corn; net long 21,000 Soybeans; net short 53,000 lots of Soymeal, and; short 10,000 Soyoil.
Risk Warning: Investments in Equities, Contracts for Difference (CFDs) in any instrument, Futures, Options, Derivatives and Foreign Exchange can fluctuate in value. Investors should therefore be aware that they may not realise the initial amount invested and may incur additional liabilities. These investments may be subject to above average financial risk of loss. Investors should consider their financial circumstances, investment experience and if it is appropriate to invest. If necessary, seek independent financial advice.
ADM Investor Services International Limited, registered in England No. 2547805, is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 148474] and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Registered office: 3rd Floor, The Minster Building, 21 Mincing Lane, London EC3R 7AG.
A subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company.
© 2021 ADM Investor Services International Limited.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM. The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.