Written Commentary
Grain Futures Outlook
Grains are quietly mixed. SU is down 2 cents and near 8.72. CU is unchanged and near 3.11. WU is up 1 cent and near 5.02. US stocks are lower. US Dollar is higher. Crude is lower. Gold is unchanged. US Congress does not yet have a new aid bill. US may increase sanctions against China in front of US/China trade talks. Parts of New York Manhattan is without power today.
For the week, SRW Wheat prices are down roughly 29 cents; HRW down 23; HRS down 15; Corn is down 4 cents; Soybeans down 16; Soymeal down $9.00, and; Soyoil up 25 points. Crushing margins are down 1 at 98 cents; Oil share unchanged at 34%.
Chinese Ag futures (January) settled up 19 yuan in soybeans, down 26 in Corn, unchanged in Soymeal, up 46 in Soyoil, and up 72 in Palm Oil. Malaysian palm oil prices were down 4 ringgit at 2,761 (basis October) awaiting monthly trade data on Monday.
Conditions will continue to be mostly good for summer crops in the U.S.; though, there will also still be pockets of net drying and rising crop stress. Heat in the southeastern states will cause some dryness to re-emerge through Monday in areas that miss out from the erratically distributed thunderstorm activity. A timely increase of rain will then occur later next week.
Last evening’s GFS model run was drier across much of Iowa Wednesday and removed most of the rain from an event the midday GFS model run had suggested. The midday European model run was most aggressive with rainfall for Iowa in the first week of the outlook. Temps are seen running close to average for the next 7 to 10 days for the Midwest.
The 11 to 16 day forecast for the Midwest has both models indicating average to a bit below average rainfall and average temps.
For the week ended July 30th, U.S. All Wheat sales are running 9% ahead of a year ago, shipments up 9% with the USDA forecasting a 2% decline on the year, U.S. Corn sales are running 12% behind a year ago, shipments 17% behind with the USDA forecasting a 14% decline, U.S. Soybean sales are running 4% behind a year ago, shipments down 4% with the USDA forecasting a 6% decline on the year, Soymeal sales up 3% on the year, shipments up 4% with an unchanged forecast and Soyoil sales 45% ahead of a year ago, shipments 50% ahead with a 47% increase forecasted.
Trade average guess for US 2020 corn crop is 15,170 mil bu with a range of 14,915-15.401. Trade average guess for US 2020 soybean crop is 4,258 mil bu with a range of 4,135-4,399. Trade average guess for US 2020 wheat crop is 1,833 mil bu with a range of 1,799-1,856.
Trade average guess for US 2020/21 corn carryout is 2,800 mil bu with a range of 2,622-3,061.Trade average guess for US 2020 soybean carryout is 525 mil bu with a range of 430-689. Trade average guess for US 2020 wheat carryout is 947 mil bu with a range of 899-1,011.
On Thursday, Managed funds were net sellers of 7,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; were net even in Corn; sold 2,000 Soybeans; net sold 2,000 lots of Soymeal, and; bought 1,000 Soyoil. We estimate Managed Money net short 15,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; short 176,000 Corn; net long 53,000 Soybeans; net short 26,000 lots of Soymeal, and; long 55,000 Soyoil.
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