Written Commentary
MORNING OUTLOOK
TGIF. Grains are mixed. SK is down 5 cents and near 16.81. SMK is near 481.4. BOK is near 73.39. CK is up 4 cents and near 7.60. CZ is near 6.51 and new highs. WK is up 27 cents and near 11.14. Overnight low was 10.75. KWK is up 36 cents and near 11.01. Overnight low was 10.55. MWK is up 35 cents and near 10.90. Overnight low was 10.49.
US stocks are higher. US Dollar is higher. Crude is higher.
Food inflation record high. Concern over Ukraine 2022 supply and US spring and summer weather could send food prices even higher.
SK is seeing some profit taking after recent gains and failure to close over 17.00. Soyoil is lower after China sold 59 mt soyoil out of their reserve. This after selling 127 mt Monday. China also sold 10 mt RSO. Malaysian palmoil futures were lower after February exports were lower than expected. CONAB est Brazil soybean crop 190 mil bu below USDA. SX gained on SK on talk SA will be out of soybeans for export in September. Rosario est Argentina soybean crop at 40.0 vs USDA 43.5. 16 pct of crop is mature. Matif rapeseed futures saw profit taking. Canada canola new highs.
CONAB est Brazil corn crop 112 mmt vs USDA 114. Rosario est Argentina corn crop at 47.7 mmt vs USDA 53.0. 26 pct of Argentina corn crop is mature and 6 pct harvested. Early yields are down 20 pct from ly. Ukraine war continues. More concern that Ukraine may not ship 500 mil bu. Additional concern that Ukraine may not be able to plant 2022 spring crops. CZ made new highs. CN should gain on CZ due to above expected weekly US corn export sales and talk more World buying is being switched to US. US summer export capacity could be tested with record corn program and China buying US soybeans.
Wheat futures are higher. Wheat volatility continues. There continues concern about if 15 mmt of World wheat will be shipped out of the Black Sea and EU. There is new concern if Ukraine will be able to harvest their winter wheat crop. More companies are pulling out of Russia. Fact John Deere is leaving increase concerns about spare parts. US wheat export prices near Germany and Baltic levels. US wheat export commit is down 23 pct last year. Mexico buying French wheat. Kuwait bought Australia wheat near $445. La Nina is forecasted through spring adding concern about US HRW moisture.
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