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Grains Slightly Higher on Low Volume

MORNING OUTLOOK

Grains are slightly higher. SK is up 2 cents and near 14.21. SX is up 1 cent and near 12.73. SMK is near 407.1. BOK is near 54.11. CK is up 3 cents and near 5.57. CZ is up 1 cent and near 4.85. WK is unchanged and near 6.15. KWK is up 3 cents and near 5.58. MWK is up 4 cents and near 6.15. US stocks are marginally higher in front of US Fed notes. US Dollar is slightly lower. Crude is lower.

Malaysian palm oil prices were up 29 ringgit at 3,831 (basis June) at midsession supported by better exports and a tight supply outlook.

Rains today are forecasted in Delta. US 6-10 and 8-14 day forecast calls for below normal temps and below normal rains especially in north plains.

In Brazil, there continues to be a need for significant rain soon from Mato Grosso do Sul into Sao Paulo due to dryness leading to an increase in crop moisture stress. In Argentina, conditions will continue to be good for late maturing summer crops.

 

China soybean crush margins are lower. China soybean import pace is near 104-106 mmt vs USDA 100

Brazil soybean premiums are lower due to slow China buying. Harvest is near complete.

Brazil April soybean loadings near 2.6 mmt. Vessel line up is near 13.8 mmt

US Ag Attaché estimated 2022 soybean acres up 4 pct and a crop near 141 mmt.

China vegoil prices continue higher led by palmoil. Palmoil higher on increase demand.

Matif wheat futures traded down to new 2021 lows. Lower Russia export prices offered resistance.

 

All eyes will be in USDA report on Friday. USDA could leave soybean and wheat numbers unchanged. Still most feel USDA will have to raise China corn imports, US exports and lower US carryout. USDA May guess of US 2021/22 corn and soybean carryout could be interesting due to lower acres.

Trade still looking for rebound in US food and fuel demand after vaccinations. New cases rising though. Trade est US 2021/22 corn carryout near 1,379 mil bu, soybean 118 and wheat 846. Trade est World 2021/22 corn end stocks near 284.4 mmt , soybean 83.3 and wheat 301.7 mmt.

On Tuesday, Managed funds were net sellers of 1,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; were net even in Corn; net bought 4,000 Soybeans; net even in Soymeal, and; bought 2,000 Soyoil. We estimate Managed Money net short 5,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; net long 420,000 Corn; net long 175,000 Soybeans; long 66,000t Soymeal, and; net long 99,000 Soyoil.

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