Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
USDA report day. Possible US government shutdown. Grains are slightly lower before month end, quarter end and potential increase US harvest pressure. One group est US farmers have sold only 15-20 pct of current crop. They may need to increase sales before November bills are due. US stocks are lower USD is lower. Crude is lower. Gold is lower. Most of Midwest remains dry which should aid harvest. S Brazil and N Argentina rains. Rest of Brazil too dry.
SOYBEANS
SX is near 10.07. Key support is 10.05. Dalian soybean, soymeal and vegoil futures were lower. There were 454 soyoil deliveries and 33 soymeal. Trade est Sep 1 stocks soybean stocks near 323 mil bu. Soybeans trying to balance slow US export soybean sales vs tight old crop supply and USDA stocks report. US harvest is near 19 pct with yields reported near expectations. US crop rated up 1 pct to 62 pct G/E. US soybean export are up 16 pct vs ly and USDA down 1 pct. Nearby Brazil soybean premiums lower on reduced China buying. New crop higher on new weather worries. Alberta, Canada canola harvest is 56 pct done with yields up 31 pct vs ly.
CORN
CZ is near 4.19. Key support is 4.18. Dalian corn futures were lower and new lows. Trade est Sep 1 stocks should be near 1,337 mil bu vs USDA 1,325. US corn exports are up 52 pct vs last year and USDA up 5. USDA announced 135 mt US corn to Mexico and 111 mt US corn to unknown. US harvest is near 18 pct with crop rated unch from last week and 66 pct G/E. Brazil first corn plantings near 32 pct with conditions dry. France corn harvest 14 pct with crop rated 62 pct G/E vs 79 last year. Ukraine exports are running 1.85 mmt below last year.
WHEAT
WZ is near 5.19. KWZ is near 5.08. MWZ is near 5.67. Trade est Sep 1 wheat stocks near 2,043 mil bu vs USDA 1,992 last year. Trade est US 2025 wheat crop at 1,925. US wheat exports are up 15 pct vs ly and USDA down 9 pct. 34 pct of US 2026 winter wheat crop is planted. Alberta, Canada wheat yields up 20 pct vs ly. Matif futures testing new lows. Russia declared emergency in key wheat area of Rostov due to lower acres and yield. Russia looking at higher cost of grain moving to ports and higher export cost.
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